timefun
0xc17185f4ecefb8ae622db7982ede2d089e0319ee
- Realised P&L
- $-344.78
- Volume
- $4.4k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $180.22
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration47.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)37.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration74.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.589 | 0.740 | $134.48 | +$27.48 |
| Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.091 | 0.234 | $45.73 | +$27.79 |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.90 |
| Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 3 awards at the Oscars? · No | 0.720 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$187.28 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.687 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$141.91 |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? · No | 0.353 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$83.41 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$160.78at 0.528Will the US strike 2 countries in February 2026?
- +$138.80at 0.622Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1?
- +$41.11at 0.710Israel closes its airspace by August 15?
- +$-0.41at 0.204Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on April 17, 2026?
- +$-5.81at 0.363US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 14:10 | Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.101999999 | $9.00 |
| 09-12 02:51 | Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.0830689463 | $8.94 |
| 09-12 02:50 | Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $24.00 |
| 09-12 02:44 | Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.5856026595 | $83.00 |
| 09-12 02:37 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.642 | $127.64 |
| 08-18 14:21 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7126931917 | $141.70 |
| 07-22 02:21 | Israel closes its airspace by August 15? | BUY | 0.7099999982 | $100.64 |
| 06-28 07:06 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | SELL | 0.26 | $35.33 |
| 06-23 12:30 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY | 0.1699999967 | $35.00 |
| 05-26 13:06 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6867873405 | $141.91 |
| 04-23 12:55 | Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? | BUY | 0.352825756 | $83.41 |
| 04-23 12:55 | Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | SELL | 0.38023841 | $83.41 |
| 04-20 08:26 | Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.7692836767 | $168.76 |
| 04-20 08:24 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | SELL | 0.3350888749 | $69.19 |
| 04-16 13:23 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.3632355827 | $75.00 |