PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

timefun

0xc17185f4ecefb8ae622db7982ede2d089e0319ee

Realised P&L
$-344.78
Volume
$4.4k
Markets traded
14
Open portfolio
$180.22

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-7.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded14
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
CautionProfit concentration47.2% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample8 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)37.5%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration74.6% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes0.5890.740$134.48+$27.48
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes0.0910.234$45.73+$27.79
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? · Yes0.1700.000$0.00−$11.90
Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 3 awards at the Oscars? · No0.7200.000$0.00−$187.28
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? · No0.6870.000$0.00−$141.91
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? · No0.3530.000$0.00−$83.41

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-24 14:10Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?BUY0.101999999$9.00
09-12 02:51Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?BUY0.0830689463$8.94
09-12 02:50Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?BUY0.6$24.00
09-12 02:44Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?BUY0.5856026595$83.00
09-12 02:37US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?SELL0.642$127.64
08-18 14:21US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?BUY0.7126931917$141.70
07-22 02:21Israel closes its airspace by August 15?BUY0.7099999982$100.64
06-28 07:06Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?SELL0.26$35.33
06-23 12:30Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?BUY0.1699999967$35.00
05-26 13:06MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?BUY0.6867873405$141.91
04-23 12:55Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?BUY0.352825756$83.41
04-23 12:55Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?SELL0.38023841$83.41
04-20 08:26Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?BUY0.7692836767$168.76
04-20 08:24US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?SELL0.3350888749$69.19
04-16 13:23US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?BUY0.3632355827$75.00