CaligostoLoboto
0xc163fbf59accb8f157931c724d88849f32105a1d
- Realised P&L
- $-20.3k
- Volume
- $132.5k
- Markets traded
- 146
- Open portfolio
- $775.33
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-15.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded146
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$263.69at 0.179Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
- +$258.73at 0.281Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?
- +$196.95at 0.433Will the Reconciliation bill receive 217–218 votes?
- +$196.05at 0.183Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 9?
- +$181.26at 0.434Will Randy Fine win by 10-15%?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 18:05 | Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026? | BUY | 0.17 | $8.50 |
| 11-01 18:04 | Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.26 | $2.60 |
| 11-01 18:04 | Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.34 | $6.80 |
| 11-01 18:02 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.72 | $28.80 |
| 11-01 18:02 | Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.37 | $11.10 |
| 11-01 18:01 | Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.26 | $6.50 |
| 11-01 18:01 | Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.42 | $14.70 |
| 10-31 21:22 | Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.52 | $5.20 |
| 10-31 21:21 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.426 | $5.11 |
| 10-31 21:19 | Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026? | BUY | 0.35 | $4.90 |
| 10-31 21:18 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.72 | $25.20 |
| 10-31 21:18 | Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $7.00 |
| 10-31 21:17 | Will the Mississippi 2026 Senate race be within 5%? | BUY | 0.4 | $3.20 |
| 10-31 21:17 | Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.28 | $5.60 |
| 10-31 21:17 | Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.33 | $9.90 |