earthStones
0xc15cad59b14079fb7a553c483ac5262c15746549
- Realised P&L
- $-2.5k
- Volume
- $219.0k
- Markets traded
- 95
- Open portfolio
- $271.15
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded95
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration83.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$138.10at 0.465Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on November 25?
- +$84.08at 0.653Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on November 24?
- +$52.33at 0.462Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 22?
- +$41.03at 0.591Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 23?
- +$38.76at 0.607Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on November 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-06 09:20 | Macron out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.05 | $35.72 |
| 08-05 07:20 | Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.0409999959 | $10.00 |
| 08-05 07:19 | Macron out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1251848104 | $10.00 |
| 08-05 07:17 | Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.0865981712 | $100.00 |
| 08-04 20:39 | Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.0467862729 | $4.00 |
| 08-04 10:18 | Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.0592593734 | $1.15 |
| 08-04 10:18 | Macron out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0488889975 | $20.00 |
| 08-02 10:52 | Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.039 | $0.65 |
| 08-02 10:50 | Macron out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0699999994 | $100.00 |
| 08-01 20:23 | Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.0559887036 | $80.00 |
| 08-01 20:15 | Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.0476853195 | $10.00 |
| 08-01 20:13 | Macron out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0699999994 | $100.00 |
| 07-31 13:25 | Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.027 | $2.97 |
| 07-31 13:21 | Macron out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0815192206 | $60.00 |
| 07-23 18:34 | Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.0376986385 | $8.00 |