naahh
0xc147976711ece8c214b940d8bd4414a635b96700
- Realised P&L
- $-795.04
- Volume
- $30.8k
- Markets traded
- 156
- Open portfolio
- $34.83
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded156
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration86.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)4.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration80.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Relay launch a token by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.491 | 0.430 | $27.95 | −$3.94 |
| Will Iceman (Drake) win Best Rap Album at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.054 | $2.73 | −$8.78 |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 SC-04 House election by 30% or more? · Yes | 0.167 | 0.043 | $2.15 | −$6.20 |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.029 | 0.040 | $2.00 | +$0.55 |
| Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election? · No | 0.842 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.50 |
| Will Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$39.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.21at 0.790Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by May 31?
- +$1.92at 0.239Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Best Narrative at the 2026 Game Awards?
- +$1.76at 0.870Will Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?
- +$0.39at 0.880Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?
- +$0.31at 0.840Will Tuyo launch a token by September 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-19 08:28 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-12 House election by 20%-25%? | SELL | 0.643362 | $32.17 |
| 09-18 18:16 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Lieutenant Governor election? | SELL | 0.768 | $38.40 |
| 09-17 22:30 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 HI-01 House election by 45%-50%? | SELL | 0.6 | $30.00 |
| 09-17 22:30 | Will the season series between the Browns and Steelers end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season? | SELL | 0.5 | $25.00 |
| 09-17 20:18 | Will the season series between the Bears and Lions end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season? | SELL | 0.44 | $22.00 |
| 09-17 20:17 | Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | SELL | 0.59 | $29.50 |
| 09-17 19:07 | Will Lux (Rosalía) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | SELL | 0.74 | $37.00 |
| 09-17 19:07 | Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | SELL | 0.77 | $38.50 |
| 09-17 16:47 | Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | SELL | 0.2 | $10.00 |
| 09-17 16:47 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 VA-09 House election by 30%-35%? | SELL | 0.35 | $17.50 |
| 09-17 16:47 | Will Taylor Swift be the third most streamed artist for 2026? | SELL | 0.8126376046 | $18.46 |
| 09-17 12:10 | Will Taylor Swift be the third most streamed artist for 2026? | SELL | 0.18 | $9.00 |
| 09-17 12:10 | Will Drake be the second most streamed artist for 2026? | SELL | 0.79 | $39.50 |
| 09-17 06:52 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MN-01 House election by 12%-15%? | SELL | 0.12 | $1.20 |
| 09-17 06:52 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 VA-09 House election by 30%-35%? | SELL | 0.68 | $34.00 |