pipidastr221
0xc1331275fe7ad201cb77cc916f41dc5732c100dc
- Realised P&L
- $8.74
- Volume
- $190.90
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $12.85
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration61.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)10.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration72.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Melania say "White House" during her NC remarks? · Yes | 0.270 | 1.000 | $9.26 | +$6.76 |
| Will Warsh say "Luck" or "Lucky" during September Press Conference? · No | 0.620 | 0.630 | $2.32 | +$0.04 |
| Will Warsh say "Echo" during September Press Conference? · No | 0.710 | 0.475 | $1.26 | −$0.62 |
| Will Little Rock, AR face tornado risk on September 15? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.001 | $0.02 | −$1.07 |
| Will Melania say "Scholarship" during her NC remarks? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.63 |
| Will Melania say "Safe" or "Safer" or "Safety" during her NC remarks? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.97at 0.510Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?
- +$0.61at 0.748Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?
- +$0.00at 0.738Will Trump say "Jet Fuel" during remarks at the Pentagon?
- +$0.00at 0.450Will "Red" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?
- +$0.00at 0.787Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during RNC Convention?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 15:13 | Will Memphis, TN face tornado risk on September 15? | SELL | 0.0072783751 | $0.30 |
| 09-15 15:01 | Will Little Rock, AR face tornado risk on September 15? | BUY | 0.0299999994 | $1.09 |
| 09-15 14:33 | Will Melania say "White House" during her NC remarks? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $2.50 |
| 09-15 14:20 | Will Memphis, TN face tornado risk on September 15? | BUY | 0.0269999999 | $1.13 |
| 09-15 13:57 | Will Melania say "Scholarship" during her NC remarks? | BUY | 0.2699999569 | $1.63 |
| 09-15 11:35 | Will Melania say "Safe" or "Safer" or "Safety" during her NC remarks? | BUY | 0.6799998446 | $1.05 |
| 09-15 11:08 | Will Warsh say "Luck" or "Lucky" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.6199999565 | $2.28 |
| 09-15 09:13 | Will Warsh say "Echo" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.7099999773 | $1.88 |
| 09-14 13:18 | Will Warsh say "Bet" or "Betting" during September Press Conference? | SELL | 0.72 | $1.39 |
| 09-14 13:18 | Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes? | SELL | 0.994 | $1.99 |
| 09-14 13:18 | Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats? | SELL | 0.997 | $2.44 |
| 09-14 13:15 | Will Warsh say "Bet" or "Betting" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.7399998965 | $1.43 |
| 09-10 23:39 | Will Trump say "Jet Fuel" during remarks at the Pentagon? | BUY | 0.7299999841 | $1.84 |
| 09-10 23:32 | Will Trump say "American Flag" during remarks at the Pentagon? | BUY | 0.6899999668 | $1.04 |
| 09-10 23:20 | Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during RNC Convention? | BUY | 0.7799999724 | $2.26 |