Ariel.lavi
0xc12250ca220de674574b6c31d776a26186a91c33
- Realised P&L
- $-0.10
- Volume
- $225.32
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $92.57
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration96.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 World Chess Championship? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.735 | $89.39 | −$0.61 |
| Will Portland Trail Blazers win the 2027 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.012 | 0.015 | $1.21 | +$0.21 |
| Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher? · Yamal | 0.480 | 0.475 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Valencia vs. Maccabi Tel Aviv · Maccabi Tel Aviv | 0.260 | 0.255 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.00at 0.671Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-10-14?
- +$-0.19at 0.860Israel military action against Lebanon on October 6?
- +$-0.91at 0.229Exact Score: Inter Miami CF 3 - 0 New York City FC?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 02:26 | Israel military action against Lebanon on October 6? | SELL | 0.7 | $0.81 |
| 10-15 02:25 | Israel military action against Lebanon on October 6? | BUY | 0.8599997764 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 02:10 | Valencia vs. Maccabi Tel Aviv | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 01:33 | Exact Score: Inter Miami CF 3 - 0 New York City FC? | SELL | 0.03 | $0.14 |
| 10-15 01:14 | Exact Score: Inter Miami CF 3 - 0 New York City FC? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 22:55 | Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher? | BUY | 0.4799998464 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 22:46 | Will Portland Trail Blazers win the 2027 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.0119999999 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 22:44 | Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-10-14? | BUY | 0.6599998944 | $2.00 |
| 10-14 22:40 | Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 World Chess Championship? | BUY | 0.7399999995 | $90.00 |