Nevaeh1365953
0xc1216ec0d9ec119695da6ac9f14a0233e8f1b141
- Realised P&L
- $-283.00
- Volume
- $2.7k
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $1.21
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-10.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample38 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)10.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration66.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $3.00 on December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.342 | 0.262 | $0.80 | −$0.24 |
| Will Rennes win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.007 | $0.23 | −$2.17 |
| Will Doctor Doom die in Avengers: Doomsday? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.140 | $0.18 | −$0.03 |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.50 |
| Will Bank of America say "Expansion" during earnings call? · No | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.51 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.00at 0.640Will Doctor Strange die in Avengers: Doomsday?
- +$9.04at 0.070Will Japan's core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?
- +$4.67at 0.280Trump declassifies new UFO files by August 15?
- +$3.50at 0.500Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
- +$-0.01at 0.987Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-12 05:33 | Will “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series? | SELL | 0.075 | $1.50 |
| 07-12 03:29 | Will Bank of America say "World Cup" during earnings call? | SELL | 0.243972028 | $10.47 |
| 07-12 03:02 | Will “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series? | SELL | 0.116 | $2.90 |
| 07-12 02:33 | Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.1430120482 | $16.62 |
| 07-12 02:09 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15? | SELL | 0.275 | $2.75 |
| 07-12 01:14 | Will Microsoft release a new MAI thinking model by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1318146341 | $2.70 |
| 07-12 00:35 | Will Viper Win MSI Finals MVP | SELL | 0.011 | $0.33 |
| 07-11 23:30 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15? | SELL | 0.23 | $2.30 |
| 07-11 23:29 | Will Spider-Man die in Avengers: Doomsday? | SELL | 0.35 | $2.32 |
| 07-11 22:56 | Will Maryland Whipsnakes be named the 2026 Premier League Lacrosse Champion? | SELL | 0.14 | $1.12 |
| 07-11 22:51 | Will Maryland Whipsnakes be named the 2026 Premier League Lacrosse Champion? | SELL | 0.19 | $1.52 |
| 07-11 22:31 | Will Maryland Whipsnakes be named the 2026 Premier League Lacrosse Champion? | SELL | 0.1 | $0.80 |
| 07-11 22:21 | Will Maryland Whipsnakes be named the 2026 Premier League Lacrosse Champion? | SELL | 0.19 | $1.58 |
| 07-11 21:31 | Will Maryland Whipsnakes be named the 2026 Premier League Lacrosse Champion? | SELL | 0.19 | $1.41 |
| 07-11 19:38 | Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.5M and 7.6M in June? | SELL | 0.1503821656 | $7.08 |