hotcold
0xc1200dd35a85da9b9ba552582d6103dd3d39a7e3
- Realised P&L
- $2.8k
- Volume
- $633.4k
- Markets traded
- 7,571
- Open portfolio
- $670.29
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded7,571
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration8.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or below on September 28? · No | 0.985 | 0.994 | $281.30 | +$2.48 |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on September 28? · No | 0.984 | 0.993 | $185.60 | +$1.54 |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on September 28? · No | 0.988 | 0.985 | $154.57 | −$0.57 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on September 28? · No | 0.920 | 0.930 | $48.83 | +$0.53 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on September 19? · No | 0.555 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$26.81 |
| Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on September 17? · No | 0.962 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$126.01 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C or higher on September 25? · No | 0.970 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$149.40 |
| Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on September 18? · No | 0.986 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$24.66 |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C or below on September 20? · No | 0.737 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.74 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$759.34at 0.461Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 29?
- +$537.55at 0.311Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 25?
- +$475.30at 0.186Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 23?
- +$466.63at 0.543Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or higher on April 17?
- +$398.47at 0.481Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 14?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 04:07 | Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on September 28? | SELL | 0.999 | $14.98 |
| 09-21 02:40 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or higher on September 21? | SELL | 0.999 | $119.88 |
| 09-20 08:44 | Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on September 20? | SELL | 0.999 | $25.97 |
| 09-15 13:11 | Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C or below on September 15? | SELL | 0.999 | $123.68 |
| 09-15 13:11 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on September 15? | SELL | 0.999 | $93.91 |
| 09-15 13:11 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on September 15? | SELL | 0.999 | $115.88 |
| 09-15 13:11 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on September 15? | SELL | 0.999 | $15.98 |
| 09-15 13:11 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on September 15? | SELL | 0.999 | $23.06 |
| 09-15 01:17 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on September 15? | BUY | 0.866 | $6.06 |
| 09-15 01:16 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on September 15? | BUY | 0.867 | $6.07 |
| 09-14 11:26 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on September 14? | BUY | 0.989 | $14.83 |
| 09-14 11:26 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on September 14? | BUY | 0.989 | $4.18 |
| 09-14 07:23 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on September 14? | BUY | 0.99 | $5.74 |
| 09-14 07:22 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on September 14? | BUY | 0.99 | $6.93 |
| 09-14 07:21 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on September 14? | BUY | 0.99 | $7.92 |