PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Speaker-NancyPelosi

0xc109ae1aebb28caced2c94044f177912f7ff450b

Realised P&L
$1.4k
Volume
$169.0k
Markets traded
779
Open portfolio
$122.34

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded779
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration26.5% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration34.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.5490.485$42.38$5.56
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31? · No0.4540.145$14.57$30.99
Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026? · No0.5070.190$9.02$15.08
Will Russia enter Borova by September 30? · Yes0.1610.074$6.66$7.84
Will United Russia win the next Mordovia Parliament elections? · Yes0.8900.986$4.93+$0.48
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31? · Yes0.3910.275$4.54$1.91
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? · No0.4320.880$4.38+$2.23
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026? · No0.8750.949$3.96+$0.31
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30? · No0.7800.952$3.73+$0.67
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.3190.825$3.28+$2.01
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? · No0.0750.815$3.25+$2.95
Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.1270.029$2.98$9.85
Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by September 30? · No0.7800.866$2.60+$0.26
Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026? · No0.2400.930$2.56+$1.90
Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? · Yes0.1440.106$2.05$0.72

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-10 17:39Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31?SELL0.32$1.40
09-09 06:15Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?SELL0.76$1.52
08-22 19:06Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?SELL0.54$30.57
08-18 18:50Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?SELL0.54$10.80
08-17 11:25US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?SELL0.175$0.88
08-17 11:16US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?SELL0.2$1.00
08-17 10:51US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?SELL0.291$2.91
08-17 09:21Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?BUY0.57$26.60
08-17 09:21Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?BUY0.57$26.60
08-17 09:21Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?BUY0.57$26.60
08-17 08:17Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?BUY0.17$1.13
08-17 08:17Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?BUY0.17$1.13
08-17 08:17Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?BUY0.17$1.13
08-16 12:25Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?BUY0.26$1.55
08-16 09:17Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?BUY0.25$3.33