fafafaffafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafa
0xc0eea70081e176f3548b409742d6e361c0fdec14
- Realised P&L
- $28.7k
- Volume
- $2.74M
- Markets traded
- 774
- Open portfolio
- $1.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded774
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration76.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.385 | $1.3k | −$1.1k |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.962 | 0.972 | $306.22 | +$3.00 |
| Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.591 | 0.497 | $113.57 | −$21.25 |
| Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? · Yes | 0.359 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$46.21 |
| Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? · No | 0.393 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.9k |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? · No | 0.598 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$721.14 |
| Will Julian Sahasrabudhe win the 2026 Fields Medal? · Yes | 0.033 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.7kat 0.580Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
- +$2.6kat 0.679US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
- +$2.5kat 0.431Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?
- +$2.4kat 0.853Israel military action against Iraq before November?
- +$1.7kat 0.670US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 00:42 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.45 | $1.5k |
| 10-28 22:54 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.962 | $303.22 |
| 10-27 22:38 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.39 | $117.00 |
| 10-27 22:37 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.39 | $1.2k |
| 10-16 18:01 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.7216216085 | $296.28 |
| 10-16 18:01 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.76 | $13.42 |
| 09-21 01:10 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.14 | $144.89 |
| 09-17 23:46 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3881814861 | $212.52 |
| 09-17 23:44 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.389685627 | $687.21 |
| 09-17 23:39 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.38 | $385.32 |
| 09-17 23:38 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3688663968 | $182.22 |
| 09-17 18:09 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.40868 | $204.34 |
| 09-15 19:21 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.1071618314 | $218.00 |
| 09-15 19:19 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.52 | $154.44 |
| 09-15 19:17 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.1454301887 | $368.94 |