PolyBot

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Traders

fafafaffafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafa

0xc0eea70081e176f3548b409742d6e361c0fdec14

Realised P&L
$28.7k
Volume
$2.74M
Markets traded
774
Open portfolio
$1.8k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.0%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded774
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration19.5% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration76.1% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028? · Yes0.7000.385$1.3k−$1.1k
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No0.9620.972$306.22+$3.00
Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026? · No0.5910.497$113.57−$21.25
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? · Yes0.3590.000$0.00−$46.21
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? · No0.3930.000$0.00−$1.9k
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? · No0.5980.000$0.00−$721.14
Will Julian Sahasrabudhe win the 2026 Fields Medal? · Yes0.0330.000$0.00−$9.90

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-29 00:42Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?SELL0.45$1.5k
10-28 22:54Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?BUY0.962$303.22
10-27 22:38Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?BUY0.39$117.00
10-27 22:37Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?BUY0.39$1.2k
10-16 18:01Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?SELL0.7216216085$296.28
10-16 18:01Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?SELL0.76$13.42
09-21 01:10Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?SELL0.14$144.89
09-17 23:46Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?BUY0.3881814861$212.52
09-17 23:44Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?BUY0.389685627$687.21
09-17 23:39Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?BUY0.38$385.32
09-17 23:38Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?BUY0.3688663968$182.22
09-17 18:09Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?BUY0.40868$204.34
09-15 19:21Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?SELL0.1071618314$218.00
09-15 19:19Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?BUY0.52$154.44
09-15 19:17Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?SELL0.1454301887$368.94