PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Davidvon

0xc0acd64c2e86ca45d94862a80b18517f04199000

Realised P&L
$-3.89
Volume
$934.08
Markets traded
16
Open portfolio
$24.01

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded16
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
CautionProfit concentration43.0% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample9 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration32.0% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? · No0.8000.962$7.69+$1.29
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? · No0.8700.935$5.61+$0.39
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? · No0.4900.325$3.25$1.65
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027? · Yes0.5700.545$2.73$0.13
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? · Yes0.6500.405$2.30$1.39
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0940.088$1.95$0.13
US imposes new sanctions on China by September 30? · Yes0.1500.070$0.49$0.56
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes0.5000.000$0.00$1.50

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-07 12:51Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?BUY0.6499999472$3.69
09-07 12:49Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?SELL0.35$3.78
09-04 19:51Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?BUY0.87$5.22
09-04 19:46Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.087$1.04
09-03 10:58Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.103$1.03
09-03 10:50Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?SELL0.521$1.06
08-31 10:53Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?BUY0.4919998288$1.00
08-30 19:22Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.5$1.50
08-30 17:21US imposes new sanctions on China by September 30?BUY0.15$1.05
08-30 16:47Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?BUY0.49$4.90
08-30 16:46Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?BUY0.8$6.40
08-29 10:21Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ETBUY0.6899999917$5.00
08-29 10:17Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?BUY0.7399999833$8.00
03-20 13:53Will DOGE audit Fort Knox before May?SELL0.74$14.76
02-27 19:33Will DOGE audit Fort Knox before May?BUY0.3394003427$3.00