Davidvon
0xc0acd64c2e86ca45d94862a80b18517f04199000
- Realised P&L
- $-3.89
- Volume
- $934.08
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $24.01
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration43.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.962 | $7.69 | +$1.29 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.870 | 0.935 | $5.61 | +$0.39 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.490 | 0.325 | $3.25 | −$1.65 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.545 | $2.73 | −$0.13 |
| Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.405 | $2.30 | −$1.39 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.094 | 0.088 | $1.95 | −$0.13 |
| US imposes new sanctions on China by September 30? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.070 | $0.49 | −$0.56 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.30at 0.660Will Kanye launch a coin in February?
- +$6.76at 0.401Will DOGE audit Fort Knox before May?
- +$2.69at 0.370Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?
- +$2.58at 0.483Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$1.60at 0.680Will JD Vance say "China" 3 or more times during the debate?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-07 12:51 | Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? | BUY | 0.6499999472 | $3.69 |
| 09-07 12:49 | Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? | SELL | 0.35 | $3.78 |
| 09-04 19:51 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $5.22 |
| 09-04 19:46 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.087 | $1.04 |
| 09-03 10:58 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.103 | $1.03 |
| 09-03 10:50 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.521 | $1.06 |
| 08-31 10:53 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.4919998288 | $1.00 |
| 08-30 19:22 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.50 |
| 08-30 17:21 | US imposes new sanctions on China by September 30? | BUY | 0.15 | $1.05 |
| 08-30 16:47 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.49 | $4.90 |
| 08-30 16:46 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $6.40 |
| 08-29 10:21 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET | BUY | 0.6899999917 | $5.00 |
| 08-29 10:17 | Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? | BUY | 0.7399999833 | $8.00 |
| 03-20 13:53 | Will DOGE audit Fort Knox before May? | SELL | 0.74 | $14.76 |
| 02-27 19:33 | Will DOGE audit Fort Knox before May? | BUY | 0.3394003427 | $3.00 |