0xc0a5a1dbf19404e6e253329aaed5800dc41fbc9a
- Realised P&L
- $-116.88
- Volume
- $8.5k
- Markets traded
- 97
- Open portfolio
- $18.75
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded97
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maduro guilty of all counts? · Yes | 0.389 | 0.205 | $8.12 | −$7.29 |
| Will Discord’s market cap be $30B or greater at market close on IPO day? · No | 0.940 | 1.000 | $1.89 | +$0.11 |
| OpenAI IPO before 2027? · No | 0.590 | 0.955 | $1.75 | +$0.67 |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.957 | $1.68 | +$0.08 |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.042 | 0.064 | $1.54 | +$0.52 |
| Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto before 2027? · No | 0.940 | 0.983 | $1.38 | +$0.06 |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? · No | 0.920 | 0.950 | $1.12 | +$0.04 |
| Will Trump meet with MrBeast in 2026? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.085 | $0.64 | −$0.49 |
| New pandemic in 2026? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.055 | $0.55 | −$1.06 |
| Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.043 | 0.003 | $0.07 | −$0.98 |
| Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.30 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$56.63at 0.460Eagles vs. Bills
- +$31.78at 0.709Alabama vs. Indiana
- +$27.37at 0.655Bears vs. 49ers
- +$21.44at 0.77076ers vs. Mavericks
- +$16.23at 0.520Spread: Vikings (-7.5)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-28 07:20 | US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.004 | $0.03 |
| 02-25 21:00 | Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.041999961 | $1.02 |
| 02-25 16:57 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.82 | $1.68 |
| 02-25 00:34 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.64 |
| 02-24 21:25 | Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? | SELL | 0.974 | $1.63 |
| 02-23 14:01 | US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799998982 | $1.76 |
| 02-23 13:51 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.23 | $1.71 |
| 02-23 05:00 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.2329999188 | $1.73 |
| 02-23 04:00 | Will Jeff Merkley be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oregon? | SELL | 0.95 | $1.98 |
| 02-15 12:47 | Will Jeff Merkley be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oregon? | BUY | 0.95 | $1.98 |
| 02-15 11:22 | New pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.61 |
| 02-15 10:57 | Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.9 | $2.87 |
| 02-12 16:58 | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL | 0.33 | $0.05 |
| 02-12 07:02 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.24 | $1.03 |
| 02-12 07:02 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.07 |