Smoldogs
0xc04bab891de314118a92caf80ab2b040c3231389
- Realised P&L
- $0.51
- Volume
- $154.35
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $25.29
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 30? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.540 | $10.80 | −$1.20 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on September 30? · No | 0.570 | 0.515 | $6.47 | −$0.69 |
| Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on September 28? · No | 0.830 | 1.000 | $4.39 | +$0.74 |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on September 28? · No | 0.870 | 1.000 | $3.08 | +$0.40 |
| Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on September 29? · Yes | 0.127 | 0.040 | $0.56 | −$1.22 |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on September 28? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$0.70 |
| Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on September 28? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$0.24 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.20at 0.150Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on September 28?
- +$0.00at 0.100Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on September 28?