mstrom
0xc03ff035a1f77a3ae6117d7edd63c604fca7d8ca
- Realised P&L
- $-2.1k
- Volume
- $96.6k
- Markets traded
- 94
- Open portfolio
- $597.36
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded94
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration80.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)26.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration72.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · Yes | 0.126 | 0.170 | $432.47 | +$111.11 |
| Sweden snap election called in 2026? · Yes | 0.165 | 0.160 | $48.47 | −$1.53 |
| Will the Moderate Party (M) be in the next Swedish government? · Yes | 0.227 | 0.195 | $42.90 | −$7.10 |
| Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · Yes | 0.019 | 0.032 | $33.54 | +$13.54 |
| Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + L + C? · Yes | 0.167 | 0.092 | $27.50 | −$22.30 |
| Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.025 | $12.49 | −$7.51 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$403.72at 0.316Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?
- +$325.42at 0.166Will 52 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?
- +$135.68at 0.730Will Karen Read be sentenced to no prison time?
- +$125.73at 0.340Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 13?
- +$81.04at 0.492Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 12:41 | Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + L + C? | BUY | 0.1666169504 | $49.80 |
| 10-16 12:41 | Will the Moderate Party (M) be in the next Swedish government? | BUY | 0.2272727273 | $50.00 |
| 10-16 12:40 | Sweden snap election called in 2026? | BUY | 0.1650485434 | $50.00 |
| 10-14 16:24 | Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.1588132354 | $100.00 |
| 09-29 19:52 | Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.0400302469 | $20.00 |
| 09-29 19:52 | Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.0190844146 | $20.00 |
| 09-22 17:29 | Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.1184706021 | $50.00 |
| 09-21 13:06 | Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | SELL | 0.1153950262 | $154.28 |
| 09-18 17:36 | Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.0486062073 | $50.00 |
| 09-15 15:56 | Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.1153846152 | $50.00 |
| 09-15 15:56 | Sweden Parliamentary Election: Örebropartiet Win Seats? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.60 |
| 09-13 19:13 | Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.1199999999 | $100.00 |
| 09-13 11:38 | Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats? | SELL | 0.82 | $82.08 |
| 09-11 14:24 | Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats? | SELL | 0.8230876623 | $329.56 |
| 09-09 19:00 | Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats? | BUY | 0.7677220039 | $42.70 |