Merlefgbn
0xc007a7fe4690e78dad4de67b8e9d48b8f2344b30
- Realised P&L
- $83.44
- Volume
- $17.4k
- Markets traded
- 53
- Open portfolio
- $116.37
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded53
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration89.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-10-13? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.785 | $104.41 | +$39.24 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,200 October 12-18? · No | 0.998 | 0.996 | $11.97 | −$0.03 |
| Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Nemiga (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #8 Playoffs · Metizport | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.82 |
| Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.222 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.18 |
| Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Astralis (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B · Astralis | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.50 |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers · Pistons | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.60 |
| Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) · Athletic Club | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$408.36at 0.500Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
- +$398.40at 0.500Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?
- +$277.69at 0.500Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series?
- +$242.98at 0.500Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
- +$240.99at 0.5002026 Balance of Power: Other
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 12:04 | Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.49 |
| 10-13 12:04 | Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.998 | $476.52 |
| 10-13 12:04 | Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.998 | $18.47 |
| 10-13 12:04 | Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.999 | $477.00 |
| 10-13 12:03 | Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | SELL | 0.998 | $487.02 |
| 10-13 12:03 | 2026 Balance of Power: Other | SELL | 0.002 | $0.97 |
| 10-13 12:01 | Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.998 | $499.00 |
| 10-13 12:00 | Will Ethereum reach $3,200 October 12-18? | BUY | 0.998 | $12.00 |
| 10-13 12:00 | Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.999 | $518.00 |
| 10-13 12:00 | 2026 Balance of Power: Other | SELL | 0.997 | $483.55 |
| 10-13 06:52 | Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-10-13? | BUY | 0.49 | $65.17 |
| 09-14 05:55 | Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Nemiga (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #8 Playoffs | BUY | 0.26 | $14.82 |
| 08-26 11:00 | Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) | BUY | 0.48 | $16.80 |
| 08-13 11:46 | Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.998 | $27.72 |
| 08-13 11:46 | Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.998 | $83.16 |