baoyu23
0xc00257ccc297ac4149132ce7a50d68f0e56f6f57
- Realised P&L
- $-1.7k
- Volume
- $697.9k
- Markets traded
- 439
- Open portfolio
- $1.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded439
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? · No | 0.914 | 0.829 | $612.77 | −$63.01 |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.388 | 0.800 | $264.00 | +$136.07 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.868 | 0.819 | $245.55 | −$14.75 |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.096 | 0.335 | $30.95 | +$22.05 |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.350 | $7.00 | +$6.40 |
| Will Juliana Brizola win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? · Yes | 0.401 | 0.250 | $7.00 | −$4.23 |
| Will Gabriel Souza win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? · Yes | 0.097 | 0.040 | $5.06 | −$7.41 |
| Will Luis Carlos Heinze win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.002 | $0.37 | −$0.12 |
| Will Jersey Mike's Subs' market cap be between $6.5B and $8B at market close on IPO day? · No | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$134.09 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$593.01at 0.802EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?
- +$481.00at 0.019Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?
- +$451.80at 0.863Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games?
- +$392.39at 0.774Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO?
- +$364.30at 0.921Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 19:08 | Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by December 31, 2028? | SELL | 0.2498768356 | $10.55 |
| 09-13 18:25 | Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by December 31, 2028? | SELL | 0.31 | $6.20 |
| 09-10 18:51 | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0963203463 | $8.90 |
| 09-10 18:50 | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3876666667 | $127.93 |
| 09-09 13:10 | Will LAPTOP flip TRUMP by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7588125822 | $196.12 |
| 09-08 08:42 | LAPTOP FDV above $10M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.954 | $95.40 |
| 09-07 23:22 | Will Donald Trump post about $LAPTOP by September 30? | BUY | 0.05 | $7.50 |
| 09-07 23:11 | Will LAPTOP launch on Solana? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.20 |
| 09-07 23:11 | Will LAPTOP launch on another chain? | SELL | 0.00177 | $0.18 |
| 09-07 23:11 | Will LAPTOP launch on Ethereum? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.10 |
| 09-07 21:26 | Will Hunter Biden launch a coin by September 9? | SELL | 0.9756666667 | $14.64 |
| 09-07 18:45 | Will Hunter Biden launch a coin by September 9? | BUY | 0.9680352941 | $49.37 |
| 09-07 18:42 | Will Hunter Biden launch a coin by September 30? | BUY | 0.9516 | $47.58 |
| 09-07 18:36 | Will LAPTOP launch on Base? | BUY | 0.9440930929 | $239.74 |
| 09-05 15:09 | Ethos FDV above $25M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.94 | $21.62 |