0xbFf9d47bB49414834D89B55D5A486a26292122E0-1765048739675
0xbff9d47bb49414834d89b55d5a486a26292122e0
- Realised P&L
- $-26.96
- Volume
- $442.28
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $2.24
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration48.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.065 | $1.32 | −$8.64 |
| Will OpenAI acquire Pinterest in 2026? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.011 | $0.92 | −$9.08 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.70 |
| Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? · No | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? · Yes | 0.353 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.80 |
| US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.95 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.00 |
| Maduro mugshot released by Monday? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.20 |
| Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.49at 0.510Trump approval Up or Down this week?
- +$7.70at 0.565Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?
- +$3.50at 0.650Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-13 09:32 | Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | BUY | 0.08 | $8.00 |
| 01-11 08:40 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.49 | $9.97 |
| 01-11 07:55 | US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.17 | $5.95 |
| 01-11 07:55 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | BUY | 0.22 | $7.70 |
| 01-07 12:36 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? | BUY | 0.18 | $1.80 |
| 01-03 18:24 | Maduro mugshot released by Monday? | BUY | 0.36 | $1.80 |
| 01-03 12:34 | Trump approval Up or Down this week? | BUY | 0.5099999939 | $10.92 |
| 01-03 12:25 | Will OpenAI acquire Pinterest in 2026? | BUY | 0.1199999899 | $10.00 |
| 01-03 12:21 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? | BUY | 0.5399999654 | $5.00 |
| 12-08 16:29 | Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? | BUY | 0.1099999815 | $5.00 |
| 12-07 12:05 | Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | BUY | 0.5649999768 | $10.00 |
| 12-07 12:05 | Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | BUY | 0.2299999825 | $8.00 |