pax
0xbfee5698af60058662c0d9b2874023420fa77272
- Realised P&L
- $-2.0k
- Volume
- $465.4k
- Markets traded
- 36
- Open portfolio
- $774.32
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded36
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration62.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample28 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)17.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration67.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.018 | $521.28 | −$63.12 |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.240 | 0.295 | $106.70 | +$19.89 |
| Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.011 | 0.009 | $90.82 | −$16.53 |
| Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.002 | $55.51 | −$169.12 |
| Will Jalen Hurts win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? · Yes | 0.069 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.38 |
| Wild vs. Avalanche · Wild | 0.149 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$163.59 |
| NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves · Wolves | 0.239 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$113.34 |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves · Timberwolves | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$170.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.4kat 0.282Trump wins every swing state?
- +$1.1kat 0.100Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
- +$514.50at 0.510Vikings vs. Bears
- +$228.61at 0.007Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- +$226.13at 0.530Will a Republican win Nevada Presidential Election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 16:34 | Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.014 | $3.39 |
| 09-13 16:34 | Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.0125188733 | $14.40 |
| 09-13 16:33 | Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.011 | $34.85 |
| 05-22 04:32 | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.24 | $86.81 |
| 05-22 04:29 | Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.01 | $200.00 |
| 05-09 00:04 | NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves | BUY | 0.24 | $101.08 |
| 05-08 23:42 | NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves | BUY | 0.23 | $11.97 |
| 05-08 23:39 | Spurs vs. Timberwolves | BUY | 0.34 | $170.00 |
| 05-06 02:00 | Wild vs. Avalanche | BUY | 0.08 | $10.40 |
| 05-06 01:59 | Wild vs. Avalanche | BUY | 0.08 | $16.00 |
| 05-06 01:58 | Wild vs. Avalanche | BUY | 0.08 | $40.00 |
| 05-06 00:10 | Wild vs. Avalanche | BUY | 0.36 | $43.20 |
| 05-06 00:09 | Wild vs. Avalanche | BUY | 0.36 | $54.00 |
| 04-21 15:44 | Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.012 | $77.15 |
| 03-03 18:00 | Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.012 | $179.22 |