ivanvchi
0xbfb8d6d26bef9b43cb48dcce08c2a974fb67443f
- Realised P&L
- $-16.89
- Volume
- $2.3k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $22.57
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration34.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)37.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026? · Yes | 0.256 | 0.230 | $11.50 | −$1.30 |
| Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $100M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.815 | $4.89 | +$0.09 |
| Will Algeria win AFCON 2027 qualifying Group I? · No | 0.380 | 0.145 | $3.19 | −$5.17 |
| Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026? · No | 0.600 | 0.605 | $1.51 | +$0.01 |
| Will Amir Ohana be the next Israeli Minister of National Security? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.026 | $0.75 | −$5.92 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · No | 0.416 | 0.325 | $0.73 | −$0.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.02at 0.206Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $100M one day after launch?
- +$12.03at 0.371Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
- +$6.75at 0.050Over $5M committed to the Jumper public sale?
- +$4.30at 0.400Will Moonshot be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?
- +$3.13at 0.602Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.17% in September?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-26 08:16 | Over $5M committed to the Jumper public sale? | BUY | 0.96 | $14.40 |
| 09-26 08:03 | Will "Patient Zero" hit 50m first week streams? | SELL | 0.33 | $12.17 |
| 09-24 08:29 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.17% in September? | SELL | 0.49 | $11.95 |
| 09-24 06:11 | Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 25 and 30 million views in week 1? | SELL | 0.81 | $16.11 |
| 09-24 05:47 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.17% in September? | BUY | 0.59 | $5.31 |
| 09-24 05:00 | Will "Avengers: Endgame Encore" be #1 Box Office this weekend? | SELL | 0.6282235294 | $21.36 |
| 09-24 04:24 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.17% in September? | SELL | 0.64 | $24.96 |
| 09-23 17:34 | Will Moonshot be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.61 | $26.23 |
| 09-23 14:01 | Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.392345679 | $15.89 |
| 09-23 14:01 | Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.565 | $22.60 |
| 09-23 14:01 | Will the next Muse Spark model (1.4+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.3950617284 | $16.00 |
| 09-23 08:22 | Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | SELL | 0.358 | $2.06 |
| 09-23 08:22 | Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.715 | $65.78 |
| 09-22 23:51 | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.5868910127 | $53.85 |
| 09-22 23:40 | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.4141549793 | $29.26 |