xxxxr56
0xbfa4a27e8328fa1cddcd8e7d816ad612be6bb2b2
- Realised P&L
- $286.91
- Volume
- $10.9k
- Markets traded
- 34
- Open portfolio
- $46.35
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded34
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration98.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample29 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration66.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No | 0.963 | 0.983 | $30.61 | +$0.61 |
| Fuse FDV above $8B one day after launch? · No | 0.810 | 0.963 | $6.51 | +$1.03 |
| Fuse FDV above $6B one day after launch? · No | 0.660 | 0.815 | $5.71 | +$1.08 |
| Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No | 0.991 | 1.000 | $2.02 | +$0.02 |
| Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No | 0.991 | 0.999 | $1.51 | +$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$292.25at 0.450Blues vs. Sabres
- +$1.82at 0.964Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League?
- +$0.58at 0.989Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup?
- +$0.43at 0.920Zircuit airdrop in 2024?
- +$0.33at 0.993Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-22 12:19 | Will the price of Solana be above $130 on February 27? | BUY | 0.9979997781 | $3.31 |
| 02-22 12:18 | Will the price of Solana be above $130 on February 26? | BUY | 0.996 | $3.00 |
| 02-22 12:18 | Will the price of Solana be above $120 on February 26? | BUY | 0.996 | $3.00 |
| 02-22 12:18 | Will the price of Solana be above $130 on February 25? | BUY | 0.998 | $2.00 |
| 02-22 12:18 | Will the price of Solana be above $120 on February 25? | BUY | 0.998 | $3.00 |
| 02-22 12:17 | Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.9909999967 | $1.50 |
| 02-22 12:17 | Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.9909999995 | $2.00 |
| 02-22 12:16 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | BUY | 0.9629999993 | $30.00 |
| 11-07 13:59 | Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? | SELL | 0.96 | $43.99 |
| 11-06 07:44 | Blues vs. Sabres | BUY | 0.45 | $239.11 |
| 09-28 09:02 | Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? | BUY | 0.993 | $45.50 |
| 08-31 07:55 | Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August? | BUY | 0.9980000001 | $45.41 |
| 07-17 05:28 | Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? | SELL | 0.8210161554 | $45.23 |
| 07-06 13:25 | Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? | BUY | 0.99 | $54.54 |
| 03-29 08:57 | Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | BUY | 0.9889999999 | $52.11 |