clausunder
0xbfa4223fe2107a2c4229195ba1d9fb4893b62e79
- Realised P&L
- $164.48
- Volume
- $22.0k
- Markets traded
- 54
- Open portfolio
- $49.47
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded54
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) be included in the next Romanian government? · Yes | 0.077 | 0.355 | $23.15 | +$18.15 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.123 | 0.075 | $12.20 | −$7.80 |
| Romanian parliament dissolved by August 31? · No | 0.500 | 1.000 | $5.00 | +$2.50 |
| Nicușor Dan out as President of Romania in 2026? · Yes | 0.139 | 0.135 | $4.87 | −$0.13 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.065 | $3.61 | −$1.39 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of AUR? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.021 | $0.64 | −$0.49 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$75.90at 0.029Will Marcel Ciolacu win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?
- +$74.05at 0.318Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?
- +$66.19at 0.605Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?
- +$36.36at 0.027Will Marcel Ciolacu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?
- +$34.69at 0.230Will Andrew Tate leave Romania before April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-17 09:05 | Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of AUR? | BUY | 0.038 | $1.14 |
| 07-17 09:03 | Romanian parliament dissolved by August 31? | SELL | 0.06 | $0.30 |
| 07-03 05:36 | Will the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) be included in the next Romanian government? | BUY | 0.0766852147 | $5.00 |
| 07-03 05:35 | Nicușor Dan out as President of Romania in 2026? | BUY | 0.1386138397 | $5.00 |
| 07-03 05:31 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.0899999845 | $5.00 |
| 07-03 05:27 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.1229999939 | $20.00 |
| 07-29 17:46 | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | SELL | 0.75 | $34.79 |
| 07-26 04:34 | Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? | SELL | 0.16 | $5.98 |
| 05-18 18:31 | Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | SELL | 0.85 | $57.30 |
| 05-18 18:01 | Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote? | BUY | 0.368 | $7.24 |
| 05-18 17:53 | Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | BUY | 0.71 | $49.70 |
| 05-18 14:16 | Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | SELL | 0.64 | $56.96 |
| 05-18 12:02 | Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | BUY | 0.5799999966 | $51.52 |
| 05-14 17:45 | Will George Simion win by 6–12%? | SELL | 0.17 | $5.37 |
| 05-13 18:50 | Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? | BUY | 0.13 | $13.00 |