0xbF4d202382
0xbf4d202382ba5702721a8c43126f5f08163733ed
- Realised P&L
- $48.6k
- Volume
- $7.54M
- Markets traded
- 493
- Open portfolio
- $46.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded493
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration66.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$22.4kat 0.050Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?
- +$10.4kat 0.738US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
- +$7.7kat 0.698Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
- +$7.6kat 0.667Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?
- +$6.6kat 0.856US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 22:46 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.37 | $1.6k |
| 09-15 18:53 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.37 | $499.43 |
| 09-15 18:53 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.38 | $79.36 |
| 09-15 14:38 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $226.80 |
| 09-15 05:44 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.4 | $1.3k |
| 09-14 18:08 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.22 | $30.80 |
| 09-14 04:34 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21? | BUY | 0.9 | $530.33 |
| 09-14 02:25 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.4 | $859.40 |
| 09-13 20:24 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | SELL | 0.23 | $5.75 |
| 09-13 20:23 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21? | SELL | 0.12 | $7.20 |
| 09-12 10:36 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21? | BUY | 0.45 | $13.50 |
| 09-12 10:34 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | BUY | 0.5 | $12.49 |
| 09-09 02:04 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.437 | $87.44 |
| 09-09 01:49 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.428 | $85.60 |
| 09-09 01:49 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.426 | $6.39 |