PolyBot

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Traders

0xbF4d202382

0xbf4d202382ba5702721a8c43126f5f08163733ed

Realised P&L
$48.6k
Volume
$7.54M
Markets traded
493
Open portfolio
$46.0k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded493
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration15.9% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration66.6% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? · No0.7580.865$30.6k+$3.8k
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027? · Yes0.6210.595$9.2k$397.53
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? · No0.5960.675$2.9k+$333.63
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? · No0.4170.393$1.4k$92.03
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21? · No0.9000.955$562.73+$32.41
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? · No0.6880.720$474.47+$21.37
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? · Yes0.4240.385$206.72$20.75
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.1320.015$123.19$961.91
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? · Yes0.4980.275$119.76$97.12
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · Yes0.3100.525$113.26+$46.38
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes0.7750.830$97.05+$6.39
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by September 15, 2026? · No0.7300.985$59.10+$15.30
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? · No0.7800.675$17.52$2.73
Will USD be at least 2.2M Iranian rials on September 30? · Yes0.7100.915$17.39+$3.90
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? · No0.6400.875$8.75+$2.35

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-16 22:46US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?SELL0.37$1.6k
09-15 18:53US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?SELL0.37$499.43
09-15 18:53US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?SELL0.38$79.36
09-15 14:38US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?BUY0.84$226.80
09-15 05:44US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?SELL0.4$1.3k
09-14 18:08US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?SELL0.22$30.80
09-14 04:34Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?BUY0.9$530.33
09-14 02:25US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?SELL0.4$859.40
09-13 20:24Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?SELL0.23$5.75
09-13 20:23Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?SELL0.12$7.20
09-12 10:36Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?BUY0.45$13.50
09-12 10:34Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?BUY0.5$12.49
09-09 02:04US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?BUY0.437$87.44
09-09 01:49US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?BUY0.428$85.60
09-09 01:49US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?BUY0.426$6.39