0xbf45cc35e5ac3702cdd3abe33756ee292d896091
0xbf45cc35e5ac3702cdd3abe33756ee292d896091
- Realised P&L
- $-37.36
- Volume
- $3.2k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $29.71
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration45.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.093 | 0.165 | $17.57 | +$7.67 |
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.011 | $12.14 | +$2.14 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$49.14at 0.507Will Portugal win on 2026-10-01?
- +$39.07at 0.132Will Elon tweet 840-879 times in September 2026?
- +$20.26at 0.386Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from September 25 to October 2, 2026?
- +$-0.79at 0.826Will Germany win on 2026-10-01?
- +$-4.70at 0.445Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 10:45 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.0279999999 | $5.00 |
| 10-02 06:09 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.0090611638 | $10.00 |
| 10-02 06:02 | Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | SELL | 0.71 | $36.42 |
| 10-01 21:23 | Will Portugal win on 2026-10-01? | SELL | 0.999 | $101.94 |
| 10-01 20:17 | Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.3702964266 | $19.00 |
| 10-01 19:41 | Will Norway win on 2026-10-01? | BUY | 0.5 | $10.00 |
| 10-01 17:56 | Will Portugal win on 2026-10-01? | BUY | 0.4899999944 | $40.00 |
| 10-01 16:43 | Will Germany win on 2026-10-01? | SELL | 0.82 | $30.36 |
| 10-01 11:27 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.43 | $69.14 |
| 10-01 11:26 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.4309999976 | $69.30 |
| 10-01 08:43 | Will Germany win on 2026-10-01? | BUY | 0.8099999957 | $30.00 |
| 10-01 08:42 | Will Portugal win on 2026-10-01? | BUY | 0.4899999824 | $10.00 |
| 10-01 06:53 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.3346367759 | $100.00 |
| 10-01 06:31 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999981 | $10.00 |
| 10-01 06:21 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | SELL | 0.26 | $35.00 |