fafafafapolen
0xbf2f002356a589fa92eb11ae5b0b2c75d10c3d3c
- Realised P&L
- $-87.44
- Volume
- $2.5k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $51.26
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration67.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 16? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.405 | $51.26 | −$5.70 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on September 12? · Up | 0.222 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$34.72 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 5? · Yes | 0.157 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$42.30 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on September 10? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.00 |
| Bitcoin above 78,600 on September 11, 12PM ET? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$22.10 |
| Bitcoin above 79,000 on September 11, 12PM ET? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$59.31at 0.080Bitcoin above 77,400 on September 11, 9AM ET?
- +$25.90at 0.630Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on September 5?
- +$2.15at 0.100Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on September 8?
- +$-5.79at 0.304Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on September 8?
- +$-8.74at 0.396Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-12 13:16 | Bitcoin Up or Down on September 12? | BUY | 0.024 | $2.32 |
| 09-11 16:01 | Bitcoin Up or Down on September 12? | BUY | 0.54 | $32.40 |
| 09-11 15:27 | Bitcoin above 79,000 on September 11, 12PM ET? | BUY | 0.2 | $12.00 |
| 09-11 15:21 | Bitcoin above 78,600 on September 11, 12PM ET? | BUY | 0.65 | $15.60 |
| 09-11 14:36 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 September 7-13? | SELL | 0.47 | $44.65 |
| 09-11 14:36 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 September 7-13? | SELL | 0.47 | $2.35 |
| 09-11 12:36 | Bitcoin above 77,400 on September 11, 9AM ET? | SELL | 0.27 | $13.77 |
| 09-11 12:36 | Bitcoin above 77,400 on September 11, 9AM ET? | SELL | 0.24 | $4.08 |
| 09-11 12:34 | Bitcoin above 77,400 on September 11, 9AM ET? | SELL | 0.305 | $10.37 |
| 09-09 01:19 | Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on September 8? | SELL | 0.25 | $3.93 |
| 09-08 14:12 | Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on September 8? | SELL | 0.26 | $26.00 |
| 09-08 07:52 | Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on September 8? | BUY | 0.29 | $29.00 |
| 09-08 05:14 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET | BUY | 0.38 | $38.38 |
| 09-07 14:05 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 7? | SELL | 0.031219 | $6.24 |
| 09-07 12:51 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 7? | BUY | 0.16 | $32.00 |