adspokposs
0xbf1472b80cc2a7b84d3cb1c544735cb7d9d25d95
- Realised P&L
- $1.8k
- Volume
- $2.21M
- Markets traded
- 7,216
- Open portfolio
- $16.11
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded7,216
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration26.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$67.64at 0.312Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?
- +$67.30at 0.462Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$49.39at 0.016Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?
- +$45.96at 0.032Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
- +$44.90at 0.029Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-06 00:48 | Will John Fetterman announce a Presidential run before 2028? | SELL | 0.21 | $0.21 |
| 08-05 20:00 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? | SELL | 0.036 | $0.04 |
| 08-05 18:16 | Will Rob Callister be the next Chief Minister of the Isle of Man? | SELL | 0.04 | $0.04 |
| 08-05 02:38 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | SELL | 0.066 | $0.07 |
| 08-04 15:28 | Will Russia enter Orikhiv by September 30? | SELL | 0.31 | $0.31 |
| 08-04 08:11 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | SELL | 0.359 | $0.36 |
| 08-03 13:55 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | SELL | 0.139 | $0.14 |
| 08-02 15:31 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | SELL | 0.029 | $0.03 |
| 08-02 02:22 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | SELL | 0.41 | $0.74 |
| 08-01 21:52 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | SELL | 0.046 | $0.05 |
| 08-01 00:01 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | SELL | 0.015 | $0.01 |
| 07-31 21:43 | Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in July 2026? | SELL | 0.161 | $0.16 |
| 07-31 07:42 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | SELL | 0.013 | $0.01 |
| 07-31 07:15 | Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in July 2026? | SELL | 0.421 | $0.84 |
| 07-31 06:50 | Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31? | SELL | 0.083 | $0.08 |