0xbee5F2DfAe8cDBd04e5a540015dd88542Bfd0341-1760035908576
0xbee5f2dfae8cdbd04e5a540015dd88542bfd0341
- Realised P&L
- $48.34
- Volume
- $429.93
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $91.56
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar11.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration51.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration68.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.875 | $63.00 | +$13.33 |
| Sweden Parliamentary Election: S Over/Under 31%? · Under | 0.700 | 1.000 | $28.56 | +$8.56 |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? · Yes | 0.044 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance · Argentina | 0.405 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$28.98at 0.460Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$9.09at 0.532Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET
- +$6.17at 0.457Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET
- +$5.15at 0.670Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025?
- +$2.68at 0.705Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-31 20:54 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET | BUY | 0.529999965 | $5.00 |
| 08-31 20:53 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 31, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET | BUY | 0.5 | $5.00 |
| 08-31 20:48 | Sweden Parliamentary Election: S Over/Under 31%? | BUY | 0.699999993 | $20.00 |
| 08-27 18:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $5.15 |
| 08-27 18:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET | BUY | 0.96 | $5.00 |
| 08-27 15:16 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET | SELL | 0.14 | $1.79 |
| 08-27 15:16 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET | BUY | 0.3899999774 | $5.00 |
| 08-27 14:51 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET | BUY | 0.6299999811 | $5.00 |
| 08-27 09:06 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET | BUY | 0.4399999648 | $5.00 |
| 08-03 18:41 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET | BUY | 0.2399999674 | $5.00 |
| 08-03 18:40 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET | BUY | 0.359999977 | $5.00 |
| 07-18 17:35 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET | BUY | 0.6599998733 | $5.00 |
| 07-18 17:34 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.4049999368 | $2.50 |
| 05-23 17:39 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.7099999998 | $29.67 |
| 05-23 17:39 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.7099999815 | $10.00 |