PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

fiftyfifty

0xbe94ce037ae85acb9d7846730a20a25f2b5fda00

Realised P&L
$2.0k
Volume
$12.06M
Markets traded
52
Open portfolio
$2.2k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded52
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration89.5% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample40 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)32.5%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration76.7% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0540.116$1.7k+$882.28
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0060.007$285.00+$37.32
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.1110.182$182.50+$71.50
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0180.034$30.15+$13.95
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0230.004$3.15$17.55
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0060.001$0.45$4.95
US recession in 2025? · Yes0.4080.000$0.00$3.7k
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? · Yes0.0110.000$0.00$10.45
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0040.000$0.00$92.90
Will Jonas Gahr Støre become the next Prime Minister of Norway? · No0.0010.000$0.00$150.00
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0160.000$0.00$16.00
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0250.000$0.00$25.00
Will Erna Solberg become the next Prime Minister of Norway? · Yes0.0010.000$0.00$34.89

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
06-29 20:45Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.056$307.72
06-23 13:28Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.054$58.74
06-17 21:18Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.051$76.19
09-09 20:14Will Jonas Gahr Støre become the next Prime Minister of Norway?BUY0.001$1.72
09-09 19:56Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway?SELL0.999$886.61
09-09 19:40Will Jonas Gahr Støre become the next Prime Minister of Norway?BUY0.001$2.42
09-09 19:38Will Jonas Gahr Støre become the next Prime Minister of Norway?BUY0.001$9.00
06-03 19:31US recession in 2025?BUY0.3$300.00
06-03 19:29US recession in 2025?BUY0.3$300.00
05-12 13:50US recession in 2025?BUY0.42$420.00
05-12 13:48US recession in 2025?BUY0.42$630.00
11-04 22:56Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?SELL0.718$0.37
11-04 22:46Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?BUY0.407$28.81
11-04 22:41Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?BUY0.404$428.21
11-04 22:37Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?SELL0.7164717915$7.1k