0xbE920967641C3154D3391FB5E1eeF21144265639-1772690169447
0xbe920967641c3154d3391fb5e1eef21144265639
- Realised P&L
- $77.07
- Volume
- $1.1k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $28.05
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration50.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)41.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Barcelona score the most goals in the UCL league phase? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.420 | $16.15 | −$3.85 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.345 | $11.90 | +$1.90 |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.114 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$86.52at 0.210Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
- +$52.11at 0.161Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$15.64at 0.390Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?
- +$12.59at 0.614Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
- +$6.02at 0.537Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-10 13:26 | Will Barcelona score the most goals in the UCL league phase? | BUY | 0.5199999927 | $20.00 |
| 09-10 13:19 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.2899999968 | $10.00 |
| 07-14 20:50 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.007 | $0.78 |
| 07-14 20:50 | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.26 | $8.67 |
| 07-11 21:43 | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.449999988 | $15.00 |
| 07-11 21:42 | Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.4399999894 | $10.00 |
| 06-17 05:40 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1139999902 | $10.00 |
| 04-15 07:33 | Will Leeds be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season? | SELL | 0.04 | $1.82 |
| 04-09 10:48 | Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? | BUY | 0.3 | $30.00 |
| 04-09 10:48 | Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | BUY | 0.2099999938 | $23.00 |
| 04-09 10:44 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | SELL | 0.51 | $39.23 |
| 04-03 13:05 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? | BUY | 0.5299999712 | $6.80 |
| 04-03 12:56 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1609999871 | $10.00 |
| 04-03 12:55 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1339999929 | $15.00 |
| 03-14 23:34 | BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev | BUY | 0.5599999776 | $10.00 |