yitdfkd
0xbe8d9cae900cc2ffbf916d33d802314be05c1d1d
- Realised P&L
- $-21.41
- Volume
- $4.0k
- Markets traded
- 28
- Open portfolio
- $1.42
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded28
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample24 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)37.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration69.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Plasma reach $2.20 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.990 | 0.976 | $1.00 | −$0.01 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the VA-01 House seat? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.395 | $0.43 | −$0.57 |
| Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) finish in second place by number of seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will AEK win on 2025-11-06? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.03at 0.570Will DraftKings acquire Railbird by October 31?
- +$0.72at 0.580Will the federal government not be shut down in 2025?
- +$0.51at 0.880Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in October?
- +$0.31at 0.850Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 10?
- +$0.17at 0.920Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-20 07:35 | Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | SELL | 0.9852974181 | $59.53 |
| 06-18 04:58 | Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.993 | $60.00 |
| 04-27 10:41 | Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.997 | $134.00 |
| 04-27 10:40 | Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? | SELL | 0.99 | $99.89 |
| 04-27 10:40 | Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.987 | $90.62 |
| 04-25 07:57 | Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $134.00 |
| 04-25 07:46 | Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $90.00 |
| 04-25 07:46 | Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.988 | $88.92 |
| 04-25 07:46 | Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $90.00 |
| 04-25 07:45 | Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.991 | $100.00 |
| 04-07 06:33 | Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.997 | $290.29 |
| 04-07 06:32 | Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.993 | $111.77 |
| 04-07 06:32 | Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | SELL | 0.997 | $69.91 |
| 04-06 13:55 | Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.998 | $290.00 |
| 04-06 13:55 | Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.997 | $290.13 |