0xBE482CD6e5183BE8767f03b48EBc3FF35769683f-1768081000582
0xbe482cd6e5183be8767f03b48ebc3ff35769683f
- Realised P&L
- $18.4k
- Volume
- $2.27M
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $43.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.805 | 0.915 | $22.7k | +$2.7k |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.815 | 0.840 | $20.6k | +$612.28 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? · No | 0.535 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.0k |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? · No | 0.292 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.9k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$37.3kat 0.817US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$26.2kat 0.792US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
- +$12.8kat 0.845Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
- +$12.6kat 0.740Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
- +$11.5kat 0.783Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 05:23 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.8134970161 | $111.4k |
| 07-25 12:27 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8054487073 | $20.0k |
| 07-25 12:21 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.8406128612 | $6.1k |
| 07-25 12:21 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.828122225 | $5.6k |
| 07-25 12:21 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.7882601532 | $8.4k |
| 07-25 12:20 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.73 | $100.0k |
| 06-19 17:37 | Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs | SELL | 0.3501611115 | $7.3k |
| 06-19 17:27 | Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs | BUY | 0.5947774865 | $1.3k |
| 06-19 17:27 | Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs | BUY | 0.4640160404 | $8.7k |
| 06-15 06:07 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.0631258487 | $2.6k |
| 06-11 18:37 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7224144556 | $30.0k |
| 06-08 07:05 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.8460957491 | $34.7k |
| 05-31 20:53 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8641909846 | $25.2k |
| 05-31 20:53 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8200628465 | $22.8k |
| 05-31 20:53 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7323720558 | $23.3k |