cotton
0xbe377bf044f62229b5e4d75ba4291871a2be1f29
- Realised P&L
- $-16.48
- Volume
- $2.5k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $0.27
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Manel Kape be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.840 | 0.015 | $0.27 | −$14.73 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$-0.08at 0.995Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals?
- +$-0.10at 0.999Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2024 meeting?
- +$-0.10at 0.999Will a 3rd party candidate win the popular vote or the Presidency?
- +$-0.10at 0.999Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election?
- +$-0.10at 0.999Will Hillary Clinton win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-04 17:33 | Will Manel Kape be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8399999955 | $15.00 |
| 02-14 18:53 | Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.993 | $37.92 |
| 02-09 20:31 | Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.995 | $38.00 |
| 09-07 09:06 | Will another country win the most medals in the 2024 Paralympics? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.14 |
| 09-07 08:44 | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | SELL | 0.998 | $96.90 |
| 09-07 08:43 | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $97.00 |
| 09-07 08:42 | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | BUY | 0.002 | $0.12 |
| 09-07 08:42 | Neither a Democrat nor a Republican wins popular vote? | SELL | 0.996 | $97.90 |
| 09-07 08:40 | Neither a Democrat nor a Republican wins popular vote? | BUY | 0.997 | $98.00 |
| 09-07 08:39 | Will a 3rd party candidate win the popular vote or the Presidency? | SELL | 0.998 | $97.89 |
| 09-07 08:38 | Kamala flips Trump on Silver's Bulletin by Sept 6? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.13 |
| 09-07 08:36 | Will a 3rd party candidate win the popular vote or the Presidency? | BUY | 0.999 | $98.00 |
| 09-07 08:35 | 2024 Balance of Power: Other | SELL | 0.997 | $97.90 |
| 09-07 08:33 | Will Brandon Aiyuk stay on the 49ers? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.11 |
| 09-07 08:32 | 2024 Balance of Power: Other | BUY | 0.998 | $98.00 |