LLMarena
0xbe2a8bed1fed285bbb5a69713973c28e3c02f745
- Realised P&L
- $959.86
- Volume
- $4.9k
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $330.82
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar19.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration81.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.459 | 0.995 | $270.71 | +$145.71 |
| Tokenized stocks available on Robinhood by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.593 | 0.555 | $20.61 | −$1.39 |
| Will Don Toliver be featured on GTA VI: The Album? · Yes | 0.394 | 0.445 | $18.08 | +$2.08 |
| Will Sexyy Red be featured on GTA VI: The Album? · Yes | 0.391 | 0.335 | $13.88 | −$2.32 |
| Will Kodak Black be featured on GTA VI: The Album? · Yes | 0.392 | 0.185 | $7.55 | −$8.45 |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (March 29) · No | 0.691 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$122.00 |
| Will Trump meet with Kevin Warsh in February 2026? · Yes | 0.579 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$160.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$195.79at 0.380US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$191.44at 0.370Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the February Meeting?
- +$182.20at 0.452Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of January 2026?
- +$124.07at 0.617Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more?
- +$105.71at 0.759Situational Awareness raises new capital by August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 06:05 | Will Don Toliver be featured on GTA VI: The Album? | BUY | 0.393908293 | $16.00 |
| 09-18 05:55 | Will Kodak Black be featured on GTA VI: The Album? | BUY | 0.3919996178 | $16.00 |
| 09-18 04:59 | Tokenized stocks available on Robinhood by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5925570471 | $22.00 |
| 09-18 04:56 | Will Sexyy Red be featured on GTA VI: The Album? | BUY | 0.3910341781 | $16.20 |
| 09-02 05:14 | Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.4592020098 | $125.00 |
| 08-08 13:55 | Situational Awareness raises new capital by August 31? | BUY | 0.75 | $329.49 |
| 07-01 06:12 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.7 | $101.50 |
| 07-01 06:06 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | SELL | 0.9707328001 | $222.08 |
| 06-13 22:19 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | BUY | 0.6556291383 | $150.00 |
| 05-24 01:49 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.4799999981 | $50.00 |
| 05-24 01:48 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999989 | $120.00 |
| 05-24 01:18 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.74 | $157.44 |
| 04-27 14:47 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.4699999985 | $100.00 |
| 03-22 15:08 | Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (March 29) | BUY | 0.6908658474 | $122.00 |
| 03-09 15:56 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? | BUY | 0.7777160382 | $143.04 |