0xbe044D601FBe89c9E87eACFa57d813A31F783C60-1767997097941
0xbe044d601fbe89c9e87eacfa57d813a31f783c60
- Realised P&L
- $-48.0k
- Volume
- $1.42M
- Markets traded
- 522
- Open portfolio
- $39.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded522
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.5kat 0.840Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
- +$2.5kat 0.938Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
- +$2.4kat 0.912US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?
- +$2.1kat 0.851Netanyahu out by June 30?
- +$2.0kat 0.795US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 07:45 | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $636.67 |
| 04-27 18:07 | Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | BUY | 0.55 | $2.2k |
| 04-27 06:27 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.84 | $2.1k |
| 04-15 00:45 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.659881231 | $944.52 |
| 04-07 10:10 | Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.40 |
| 04-07 10:10 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.998 | $10.0k |
| 04-04 04:42 | Derik Queen: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | BUY | 0.98 | $4.89 |
| 04-03 06:17 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 3? | BUY | 0.992 | $0.76 |
| 04-02 18:36 | Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals | BUY | 0.97 | $11.55 |
| 04-02 18:35 | Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals | BUY | 0.9954994058 | $110.97 |
| 03-31 07:57 | Set 1 Winner: Moriya vs Matsuda | BUY | 0.597 | $27.76 |
| 03-30 20:40 | Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | BUY | 0.6411447512 | $64.80 |
| 03-30 20:38 | Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | BUY | 0.7165311776 | $426.78 |
| 03-30 20:11 | Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | BUY | 0.7289959093 | $117.62 |
| 03-30 19:52 | Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | BUY | 0.7923202016 | $42.44 |