kaixinwan
0xbdd444ab3dc32ac2976d366df2b1bd4aa7e4eaf5
- Realised P&L
- $523.23
- Volume
- $100.7k
- Markets traded
- 308
- Open portfolio
- $172.48
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded308
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$475.00at 0.050Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 22?
- +$457.79at 0.084Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 15?
- +$451.25at 0.050Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 2?
- +$284.40at 0.050Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 4?
- +$215.68at 0.849Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 07:48 | Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? | SELL | 0.4821308887 | $189.33 |
| 10-11 07:36 | Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? | BUY | 0.4455466837 | $174.65 |
| 10-11 07:36 | Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? | BUY | 0.4490832697 | $176.36 |
| 10-11 04:05 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.95 | $741.00 |
| 10-11 03:40 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.698 | $52.35 |
| 10-11 03:06 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.74 | $512.82 |
| 10-11 00:16 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.693 | $51.97 |
| 10-10 09:43 | US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by December 31? | SELL | 0.41 | $41.00 |
| 10-08 00:55 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $702.00 |
| 10-08 00:48 | US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by December 31? | BUY | 0.35 | $35.00 |
| 10-02 08:58 | US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31? | SELL | 0.18 | $93.06 |
| 10-02 06:19 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.829047619 | $574.53 |
| 10-02 02:57 | US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31? | BUY | 0.16 | $82.72 |
| 09-30 04:04 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.996 | $0.12 |
| 09-30 03:23 | Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.86 | $318.20 |