DanCatalyst
0xbd85eb45c605f1fcc94f8b1cca687f8826a67a3d
- Realised P&L
- $3.1k
- Volume
- $218.2k
- Markets traded
- 7,795
- Open portfolio
- $118.89
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded7,795
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration17.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration61.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will The Odyssey win Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.500 | $72.46 | −$27.54 |
| Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.560 | $36.52 | +$6.52 |
| Human moon landing in 2026? · No | 0.939 | 0.991 | $9.90 | +$0.52 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$17.40at 0.304Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on August 12?
- +$13.99at 0.300Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 9?
- +$13.64at 0.210Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 9°C on March 20?
- +$13.10at 0.320Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 13?
- +$12.69at 0.492Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 20?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-12 14:19 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 12? | SELL | 0.1440032026 | $1.80 |
| 08-12 12:14 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on August 12? | SELL | 0.3364102564 | $4.20 |
| 08-12 12:14 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on August 12? | SELL | 0.18 | $2.70 |
| 08-12 07:43 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on August 12? | SELL | 0.53 | $2.64 |
| 08-12 06:49 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 12? | SELL | 0.0641256281 | $1.28 |
| 08-12 06:49 | Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on August 12? | SELL | 0.4 | $0.20 |
| 08-12 06:49 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 12? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.20 |
| 08-12 06:48 | Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on August 12? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.10 |
| 08-12 06:48 | Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on August 12? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.05 |
| 08-12 06:48 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on August 12? | SELL | 0.34 | $3.08 |
| 08-12 06:48 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 12? | SELL | 0.11 | $0.56 |
| 08-12 06:48 | Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on August 12? | SELL | 0.4147579299 | $4.97 |
| 08-12 06:48 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 12? | SELL | 0.4080128205 | $5.09 |
| 08-12 06:47 | Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on August 12? | SELL | 0.4504487179 | $5.62 |
| 08-12 06:47 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on August 12? | SELL | 0.46 | $7.17 |