erjidiu
0xbd71a212b68399caf0a4420e50ae9b74a8dcf260
- Realised P&L
- $-9.10
- Volume
- $3.1k
- Markets traded
- 56
- Open portfolio
- $13.66
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded56
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1150? · Yes | 0.999 | 0.996 | $13.66 | −$0.04 |
| Red Wings vs. Blue Jackets · Red Wings | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$44.12at 0.750Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 13?
- +$44.08at 0.750Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?
- +$42.85at 0.750Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 24?
- +$30.16at 0.749Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 18?
- +$14.03at 0.750Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-10 11:49 | Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1150? | BUY | 0.9989999791 | $13.70 |
| 08-29 10:03 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.70 |
| 07-24 14:31 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $13.70 |
| 06-05 08:50 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 6? | BUY | 0.999 | $90.00 |
| 05-28 08:20 | Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9989999899 | $90.00 |
| 05-25 08:31 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $90.00 |
| 05-15 09:49 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $72,000 on May 17? | BUY | 0.999 | $88.00 |
| 05-10 03:22 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 10? | BUY | 0.999 | $90.00 |
| 05-05 10:42 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5? | BUY | 0.999 | $89.00 |
| 04-24 02:33 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 24? | BUY | 0.999 | $85.46 |
| 04-24 02:33 | Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.999000001 | $1.00 |
| 04-24 02:33 | Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in April 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.28 |
| 04-24 02:32 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 24? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.15 |
| 04-17 08:26 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 18? | BUY | 0.9979999913 | $59.98 |
| 04-17 08:26 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $28.00 |