balyd
0xbd5da14cb16107c316506071049fe2015da76ace
- Realised P&L
- $310.97
- Volume
- $46.5k
- Markets traded
- 166
- Open portfolio
- $739.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded166
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No | 0.955 | 0.975 | $292.35 | +$5.85 |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.585 | $203.58 | +$29.58 |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.415 | $144.42 | −$29.58 |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.990 | 0.984 | $78.72 | −$0.48 |
| Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in September? · No | 0.940 | 0.997 | $19.93 | +$1.14 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$203.99at 0.320Trump second inauguration gets more viewers than first?
- +$12.50at 0.500Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$12.00at 0.880Iran leadership change by April 30?
- +$11.55at 0.942Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?
- +$10.60at 0.900Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 06:42 | Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $79.20 |
| 09-28 01:39 | Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | BUY | 0.998 | $289.42 |
| 09-19 02:59 | Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | BUY | 0.979 | $135.10 |
| 09-19 02:58 | Will a 8.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30? | SELL | 0.965 | $20.27 |
| 09-17 10:20 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30? | BUY | 0.94 | $47.00 |
| 09-17 10:18 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September? | BUY | 0.99 | $49.50 |
| 09-17 10:10 | Will a 8.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30? | BUY | 0.92 | $19.32 |
| 09-17 10:03 | Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in September? | BUY | 0.94 | $18.79 |
| 09-04 09:11 | Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? | BUY | 0.99 | $111.87 |
| 09-04 07:50 | Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | BUY | 0.92 | $27.60 |
| 08-29 09:32 | Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.988 | $395.20 |
| 08-29 09:31 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.955 | $286.50 |
| 08-29 09:18 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30? | BUY | 0.89 | $26.70 |
| 08-06 11:02 | Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.934 | $65.38 |
| 07-31 14:16 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on August 1? | BUY | 0.996 | $20.92 |