pm-maio-2026
0xbd417cdfc83824b2cd31e4428bc1a67c241ba6de
- Realised P&L
- $-2.0k
- Volume
- $2.31M
- Markets traded
- 50
- Open portfolio
- $1.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded50
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration8.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? · No | 0.283 | 0.185 | $360.56 | −$191.15 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.162 | 0.085 | $345.83 | −$311.35 |
| Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? · Yes | 0.084 | 0.050 | $227.57 | −$152.63 |
| Will Solana reach $200 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.067 | 0.048 | $212.34 | −$84.20 |
| Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.053 | $196.45 | −$208.63 |
| Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.021 | $93.98 | −$43.67 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.013 | 0.007 | $43.22 | −$32.73 |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.065 | 0.045 | $30.10 | −$13.58 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.9kat 0.030Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$6.9kat 0.040Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$5.3kat 0.251Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$5.3kat 0.900Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$4.8kat 0.056Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 07:35 | Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? | SELL | 0.23 | $93.17 |
| 10-30 07:33 | Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0050016077 | $15.55 |
| 10-30 07:32 | Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0062 | $0.15 |
| 10-30 00:21 | Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.05 | $72.90 |
| 10-30 00:19 | Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.009 | $58.36 |
| 10-29 13:07 | Will Solana reach $200 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.04 | $4.71 |
| 10-29 13:07 | Will Solana reach $200 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.05 | $0.25 |
| 10-29 13:05 | Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.043 | $4.30 |
| 10-29 13:05 | Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.045 | $0.22 |
| 10-29 13:05 | Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.047 | $2.58 |
| 10-29 13:05 | Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.048 | $0.24 |
| 10-29 13:05 | Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.049 | $0.24 |
| 10-29 13:03 | Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.02 | $2.00 |
| 10-29 13:03 | Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.022 | $22.11 |
| 10-29 13:03 | Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.024 | $0.12 |