marketsnember
0xbd23c760a6302150fe8e9d9db2668ea561a6259d
- Realised P&L
- $406.86
- Volume
- $52.8k
- Markets traded
- 192
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded192
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? · No | 0.993 | 0.992 | $297.60 | −$0.30 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · No | 0.964 | 0.963 | $192.60 | −$0.20 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31? · No | 0.992 | 0.991 | $118.85 | −$0.18 |
| Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by October 31? · No | 0.880 | 0.966 | $95.58 | +$8.46 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · No | 0.960 | 0.955 | $95.50 | −$0.50 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2026? · No | 0.972 | 0.970 | $91.38 | −$0.24 |
| Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? · No | 0.935 | 0.915 | $73.24 | −$1.60 |
| Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by December 31? · Yes | 0.935 | 0.949 | $47.45 | +$0.70 |
| Will Xi Jinping purge Li Xi in 2026? · No | 0.967 | 0.959 | $38.36 | −$0.32 |
| Will Xi meet with Takaichi by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.990 | 0.983 | $6.50 | −$0.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$157.84at 0.450Solana above $190 on January 17?
- +$34.96at 0.489Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$29.90at 0.770Will Putin meet with Trump by September 30?
- +$13.60at 0.950Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
- +$10.00at 0.470Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 03:18 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.964 | $192.80 |
| 10-08 03:16 | Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31? | BUY | 0.992 | $119.03 |
| 10-08 03:15 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.96 | $96.00 |
| 10-08 03:10 | Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? | BUY | 0.993 | $297.90 |
| 10-08 03:09 | Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2026? | BUY | 0.972 | $91.61 |
| 10-08 03:08 | Will Xi meet with Takaichi by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $6.54 |
| 10-08 03:04 | Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by December 31? | BUY | 0.935 | $46.75 |
| 10-08 03:04 | Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by October 31? | BUY | 0.88 | $87.12 |
| 10-08 03:03 | Will Xi Jinping purge Li Xi in 2026? | BUY | 0.967 | $38.68 |
| 10-08 03:03 | Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? | BUY | 0.936 | $37.44 |
| 10-08 03:03 | Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? | BUY | 0.935 | $37.40 |
| 09-20 06:55 | Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? | BUY | 0.995 | $746.25 |
| 09-20 06:53 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | SELL | 0.972 | $48.60 |
| 09-07 02:55 | Will a 8.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30? | BUY | 0.977 | $29.31 |
| 09-07 02:54 | Will a 6.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30? | BUY | 0.967 | $9.67 |