0xBCf0E59D9B118ED784FbA2Ab60a727Ea45270901-1781748723399
0xbcf0e59d9b118ed784fba2ab60a727ea45270901
- Realised P&L
- $-168.12
- Volume
- $3.6k
- Markets traded
- 75
- Open portfolio
- $4.18
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded75
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample44 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)77.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration80.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$33.58at 0.742Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 26?
- +$24.59at 0.259Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23?
- +$15.97at 0.198Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?
- +$15.74at 0.876Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 28?
- +$15.17at 0.895Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 27?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 06:01 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on October 21? | BUY | 0.65 | $3.38 |
| 10-20 03:26 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 16°C on October 20? | SELL | 0.999 | $4.65 |
| 10-19 10:34 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 16°C on October 20? | BUY | 0.8599999957 | $4.00 |
| 10-19 10:33 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on October 20? | BUY | 0.269999993 | $10.00 |
| 10-19 10:33 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on October 20? | BUY | 0.0549925939 | $5.00 |
| 10-19 10:24 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on October 19? | SELL | 0.998 | $14.67 |
| 10-18 14:15 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on October 19? | BUY | 0.339999985 | $5.00 |
| 10-18 14:11 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on October 19? | BUY | 0.1174835024 | $5.00 |
| 10-18 14:05 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET | BUY | 0.5299999587 | $5.00 |
| 10-18 13:23 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on October 19? | BUY | 0.18 | $10.80 |
| 10-16 10:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET | BUY | 0.6199999628 | $5.00 |
| 10-16 09:38 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET | BUY | 0.4199999966 | $5.00 |
| 10-16 09:33 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET | BUY | 0.9699998448 | $5.00 |
| 10-15 07:59 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on October 16? | BUY | 0.2593516197 | $20.00 |
| 10-15 07:59 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on October 16? | BUY | 0.297504796 | $20.00 |