Kiphawk
0xbce94365afd3167772db7b2b24bd16eb794fb1ba
- Realised P&L
- $-2.4k
- Volume
- $45.4k
- Markets traded
- 278
- Open portfolio
- $642.84
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded278
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$161.69at 0.789Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?
- +$84.05at 0.723Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?
- +$82.43at 0.750Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?
- +$82.11at 0.898Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July?
- +$81.15at 0.642Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-04 21:48 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | BUY | 0.1899999959 | $35.00 |
| 04-04 21:42 | Crude Oil all time high by April 30? | BUY | 0.25 | $5.00 |
| 04-04 21:32 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | BUY | 0.32 | $20.00 |
| 04-04 21:23 | US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | BUY | 0.5499999956 | $50.00 |
| 04-04 21:23 | US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | BUY | 0.5499999956 | $50.00 |
| 03-24 18:17 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL | 0.43 | $29.32 |
| 03-24 18:17 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.75 | $32.91 |
| 03-24 18:16 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.57 | $11.40 |
| 03-18 19:26 | Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1930309952 | $150.00 |
| 03-18 19:24 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.1899998784 | $1.00 |
| 03-18 19:13 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.439999993 | $30.00 |
| 03-18 19:10 | US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3980099502 | $10.00 |
| 03-18 19:10 | US x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $20.00 |
| 03-16 15:58 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | BUY | 0.6499999935 | $10.00 |
| 03-16 15:56 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | BUY | 0.6499999935 | $20.00 |