PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Kiphawk

0xbce94365afd3167772db7b2b24bd16eb794fb1ba

Realised P&L
$-2.4k
Volume
$45.4k
Markets traded
278
Open portfolio
$642.84

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-5.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded278
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration17.4% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration42.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? · Yes0.3070.065$272.61$1.0k
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.8300.966$116.33+$16.33
Will Trump visit China by April 30? · No0.3901.000$64.10+$39.10
US x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026? · No0.6401.000$31.25+$11.25
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.6000.935$31.17+$11.17
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? · Yes0.4200.115$28.43$75.41
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? · No0.3981.000$25.13+$15.13
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1930.029$22.92$127.08
US forces enter Iran by April 30? · Yes0.5701.000$20.00+$8.60
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? · No0.7501.000$13.33+$3.33
US strike on Cuba by December 31? · Yes0.2650.155$5.85$4.15
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? · No0.7401.000$4.05+$1.05
Iran leadership change by December 31? · Yes0.6800.145$2.90$10.70
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026? · No0.7001.000$2.86+$0.86
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · Yes0.3300.055$1.10$5.50

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
04-04 21:48Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?BUY0.1899999959$35.00
04-04 21:42Crude Oil all time high by April 30?BUY0.25$5.00
04-04 21:32Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?BUY0.32$20.00
04-04 21:23US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?BUY0.5499999956$50.00
04-04 21:23US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?BUY0.5499999956$50.00
03-24 18:17US forces enter Iran by April 30?SELL0.43$29.32
03-24 18:17US forces enter Iran by March 31?SELL0.75$32.91
03-24 18:16US forces enter Iran by April 30?BUY0.57$11.40
03-18 19:26Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?BUY0.1930309952$150.00
03-18 19:24Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?BUY0.1899998784$1.00
03-18 19:13US forces enter Iran by April 30?BUY0.439999993$30.00
03-18 19:10US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?BUY0.3980099502$10.00
03-18 19:10US x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026?BUY0.64$20.00
03-16 15:58US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?BUY0.6499999935$10.00
03-16 15:56US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?BUY0.6499999935$20.00