0xbcbfb68786947ba55664b2bb261918e791183671
0xbcbfb68786947ba55664b2bb261918e791183671
- Realised P&L
- $40.93
- Volume
- $2.2k
- Markets traded
- 5
- Open portfolio
- $93.39
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded5
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration87.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bangkok's highest 24-hour rainfall on October 4-10 be between 50-100mm? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.950 | $93.39 | +$3.93 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$35.89at 0.021Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 26?
- +$2.66at 0.426Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on September 17?
- +$1.66at 0.144Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on August 29?
- +$0.73at 0.080Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 26?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-10 11:02 | Will Bangkok's highest 24-hour rainfall on October 4-10 be between 50-100mm? | BUY | 0.91 | $61.89 |
| 09-26 03:43 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 26? | SELL | 0.1025321798 | $48.59 |
| 09-26 01:43 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 26? | BUY | 0.02 | $9.48 |
| 09-16 08:43 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on September 17? | BUY | 0.41 | $50.27 |
| 08-29 04:04 | Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on August 29? | BUY | 0.1371759559 | $47.70 |
| 08-25 15:18 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 26? | SELL | 0.0928212821 | $9.28 |