Kaddir
0xbcb2189d13b8c1179bb103c13d6cc1544565d290
- Realised P&L
- $-213.35
- Volume
- $4.5k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $52.60
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.675 | $30.68 | +$0.68 |
| Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.190 | $21.92 | −$8.08 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.40 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in Epstein files? · Yes | 0.022 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.20 |
| Will Dogecoin reach $0.30 in March? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$99.00 |
| Will Solana hit $210 in March? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$101.20 |
| US national XRP reserve in 2025? · Yes | 0.293 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$45.00 |
| Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election? · Yes | 0.175 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$73.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$211.30at 0.505Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?
- +$-47.41at 0.054Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 09:38 | Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.2599999986 | $30.00 |
| 09-16 09:36 | Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.6599999991 | $30.00 |
| 03-07 07:29 | US national XRP reserve in 2025? | BUY | 0.2931640621 | $45.00 |
| 03-03 16:15 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in Epstein files? | BUY | 0.022 | $0.48 |
| 03-02 21:02 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? | BUY | 0.14 | $50.40 |
| 03-02 18:01 | Will Dogecoin reach $0.30 in March? | BUY | 0.22 | $42.90 |
| 03-02 18:00 | Will Solana hit $210 in March? | BUY | 0.46 | $9.66 |
| 03-02 17:57 | Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? | SELL | 0.002 | $1.81 |
| 03-02 17:56 | Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? | SELL | 0.991 | $431.29 |
| 02-23 19:25 | Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election? | BUY | 0.09 | $23.20 |
| 02-23 18:01 | Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election? | BUY | 0.3099999968 | $50.00 |
| 02-23 18:00 | Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? | BUY | 0.007 | $4.00 |
| 02-23 17:59 | Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? | BUY | 0.6414473683 | $60.00 |
| 02-23 17:57 | Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? | BUY | 0.609999994 | $80.00 |
| 02-23 17:53 | Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? | BUY | 0.3799999985 | $80.00 |