0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004
0xbca82ff9891c5358b33d565c4f4739e4d812b680
- Realised P&L
- $-14.7k
- Volume
- $1.10M
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $37.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.496 | 0.554 | $22.1k | +$2.3k |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.130 | 0.225 | $8.1k | +$3.4k |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.054 | 0.013 | $4.1k | −$12.9k |
| Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.339 | 0.385 | $1.6k | +$184.54 |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.875 | 0.860 | $843.36 | −$14.23 |
| Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.010 | $437.29 | −$1.2k |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? · No | 0.510 | 0.515 | $302.31 | +$2.94 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$589.12at 0.609Spread: CR Flamengo (-2.5)
- +$489.02at 0.674Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-09-06?
- +$412.03at 0.777Spread: SC Internacional (-1.5)
- +$198.08at 0.890Spread: Santos FC (-2.5)
- +$46.98at 0.018Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 05:56 | Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.556 | $2.8k |
| 09-17 05:53 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.22 | $110.00 |
| 09-17 05:52 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.22 | $440.00 |
| 09-17 05:51 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.22 | $566.17 |
| 09-17 05:12 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.22 | $1.3k |
| 09-16 21:13 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.22 | $440.00 |
| 09-16 20:33 | Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.86 | $46.42 |
| 09-16 20:32 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.23 | $10.57 |
| 09-16 20:21 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.23 | $23.00 |
| 09-16 20:20 | Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.86 | $134.16 |
| 09-16 18:43 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.23 | $103.50 |
| 09-16 18:35 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.23 | $69.00 |
| 09-16 16:53 | Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.37 | $99.16 |
| 09-16 15:57 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.24 | $43.20 |
| 09-16 15:57 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? | BUY | 0.51 | $299.37 |