r888
0xbca69be5edef416ba701f9a3a2983efdf58273e3
- Realised P&L
- $-15.0k
- Volume
- $7.00M
- Markets traded
- 501
- Open portfolio
- $898.12
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded501
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saturn FDV above $100M one day after launch · Yes | 0.586 | 0.555 | $435.25 | −$24.43 |
| Saturn FDV above $50M one day after launch · Yes | 0.769 | 0.700 | $402.74 | −$39.52 |
| Cambria FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.025 | 0.018 | $31.13 | −$11.41 |
| Cambria FDV above $70M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.145 | $29.00 | −$17.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$20.4kat 0.132Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch?
- +$7.0kat 0.200Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch?
- +$6.7kat 0.255Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils
- +$5.8kat 0.455Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?
- +$5.0kat 0.988Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-29 15:02 | Saturn FDV above $100M one day after launch | SELL | 0.8008720238 | $269.09 |
| 08-18 20:53 | Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.06 | $45.00 |
| 08-18 19:55 | Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.07 | $85.01 |
| 08-18 14:55 | Printr FDV above $100M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.0321312974 | $16.52 |
| 08-17 07:33 | Base FDV above $8B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.67 | $450.90 |
| 08-14 18:29 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1763244422 | $528.97 |
| 08-14 18:28 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | SELL | 0.39 | $86.05 |
| 08-14 18:28 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | SELL | 0.36 | $72.00 |
| 08-12 14:39 | Cambria FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.0345974026 | $7.99 |
| 08-12 14:39 | Cambria FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.026 | $1.30 |
| 08-12 14:39 | Cambria FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.0237779033 | $34.52 |
| 08-11 18:09 | UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? | SELL | 0.2302500125 | $46.05 |
| 08-11 18:09 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.452549 | $90.51 |
| 08-11 18:08 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.2 | $40.00 |
| 08-11 18:08 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | SELL | 0.22 | $44.00 |