PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0xbc998383c7397ae62e7f7c738047617e4c2dae7a

Realised P&L
not known
Volume
not known
Markets traded
333
Open portfolio
$69.40

Can you copy this trader?

plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

Not knownEdge per dollar—
No leaderboard entry for this wallet in the requested window.
ClearMarkets traded333
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration18.5% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration11.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Aryeh Deri out as Shas Leader by December 31? · Yes0.1900.350$7.70+$3.52
Alberta snap election called by March 31, 2027? · Yes0.1400.245$5.39+$2.31
Ryan Wedding arrested by June 30? · Yes0.0601.000$4.99+$4.69
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released before Anthropic IPO? · No0.1580.205$4.42+$1.01
First Round Outright Winner in the GA-09 House Election? · No0.1000.184$4.06+$1.86
Spain General Election: Adelante Andalucía wins a seat? · No0.1300.165$3.63+$0.77
Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30? · Yes0.1200.115$2.53−$0.11
North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026? · Yes0.0301.000$2.52+$2.44
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by March 31? · No0.0801.000$2.17+$2.00
Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31? · No0.1100.955$2.14+$1.90
Will Trump pardon Richard Nixon by December 31? · Yes0.1500.085$1.87−$1.43
Will Spotify reach 1 billion total users in 2026? · Yes0.1000.035$1.75−$3.25
Ángela Aguilar & Christian Nodal split in 2026? · Yes0.2500.495$1.59+$0.79
More EU sanctions on Russia by March 31? · Yes0.1301.000$1.49+$1.30
Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31? · Yes0.1200.100$1.40−$0.28

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-28 16:51First Round Outright Winner in the GA-12 House Election?SELL0.05$1.10
10-21 17:25Alberta snap election called by March 31, 2027?BUY0.14$3.08
10-11 15:47Trump x Taliban mineral deal signed in 2026?SELL0.1$2.20
09-27 02:24Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?SELL0.17$1.70
09-27 02:24Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?SELL0.17$1.70
09-12 13:05Will Kevin O'Leary's Utah Data Center project break ground in 2026?SELL0.42$9.24
08-15 06:28Charizard ex Price Over/Under $372.18 on August 31?SELL0.53$5.30
08-15 06:22Charizard ex Price Over/Under $372.18 on August 31?SELL0.55$2.75
08-15 05:59Charizard ex Price Over/Under $372.18 on August 31?SELL0.58$2.90
08-15 00:21Charizard ex Price Over/Under $372.18 on August 31?BUY0.09$1.80
08-15 00:09First Round Outright Winner in the GA-11 House Election?SELL0.26$5.20
08-09 06:19Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30?SELL0.25$2.53
07-19 12:17Ekrem İmamoğlu released from custody in 2026?SELL0.06$1.32
07-19 12:15Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?SELL0.09$1.98
06-25 13:50NZ election: Labour v National (% of Party List Vote)SELL0.59$2.95