0xBC72ed26EAf72E9DCB5EB9880c65a939E4D2151C-1761284038151
0xbc72ed26eaf72e9dcb5eb9880c65a939e4d2151c
- Realised P&L
- $152.71
- Volume
- $837.12
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $73.64
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar18.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration49.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on October 22? · Yes | 0.183 | 0.255 | $27.79 | +$7.79 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? · No | 0.130 | 0.175 | $26.92 | +$6.92 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.265 | $18.93 | −$1.07 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on November 29? · No | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$78.00at 0.328Will Tesla say "Cybertruck" during earnings call?
- +$42.31at 0.320Israel strike on the West Bank by December 31?
- +$13.33at 0.600Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 43-44°F on November 28?
- +$10.62at 0.636Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?
- +$9.41at 0.680Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on December 1?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-21 11:31 | Will Tesla say "Cybertruck" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.3275862069 | $38.00 |
| 10-21 11:24 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on October 22? | BUY | 0.1835181387 | $20.00 |
| 10-21 11:16 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.1299999999 | $20.00 |
| 10-21 11:16 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.2799999978 | $20.00 |
| 01-01 13:43 | Israel strike on the West Bank by December 31? | SELL | 0.997 | $62.31 |
| 11-30 21:15 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on December 1? | BUY | 0.6799999946 | $20.00 |
| 11-29 13:55 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 43-44°F on November 29? | SELL | 0.6 | $15.19 |
| 11-29 09:42 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on November 29? | BUY | 0.02 | $1.00 |
| 11-29 09:41 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 43-44°F on November 29? | BUY | 0.7899999968 | $20.00 |
| 11-29 09:09 | Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025? | SELL | 0.974 | $30.61 |
| 11-29 09:07 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | SELL | 0.91 | $4.83 |
| 11-28 07:13 | Israel strike on the West Bank by December 31? | BUY | 0.32 | $20.00 |
| 11-28 04:26 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 43-44°F on November 28? | BUY | 0.599999994 | $20.00 |
| 11-28 04:26 | Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 28? | BUY | 0.8 | $20.00 |
| 11-28 04:22 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | BUY | 0.9399999962 | $5.00 |