lillimaker
0xbc6e0de34741c25ce88320344ecd617f5f03829a
- Realised P&L
- $-7.96
- Volume
- $319.72
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $4.64
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration46.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on November 2? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.480 | $2.67 | +$0.67 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by December 31? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.415 | $1.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $118,000 on September 13? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Bitcoin above $114K on September 10? · Yes | 0.178 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| Ethereum above $3,600 on July 25? · No | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.25 |
| Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on July 25? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.13at 0.320Trump x Epstein files made public in 2025?
- +$1.04at 0.490Will Prince Andrew be named in newly released Epstein files?
- +$0.75at 0.870Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on September 12?
- +$0.63at 0.760Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?
- +$-0.55at 0.476Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on November 2?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 00:28 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on November 2? | SELL | 0.367 | $1.60 |
| 11-02 00:19 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by December 31? | BUY | 0.419999979 | $2.00 |
| 11-01 22:29 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on November 2? | BUY | 0.4589999447 | $2.00 |
| 11-01 22:29 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on November 2? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 00:01 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on September 12? | BUY | 0.8699999983 | $5.00 |
| 09-10 14:46 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $118,000 on September 13? | BUY | 0.1699999759 | $5.00 |
| 09-10 12:59 | Bitcoin above $114K on September 10? | BUY | 0.1779999643 | $4.00 |
| 07-25 23:23 | Trump x Epstein files made public in 2025? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 07-25 23:21 | Will Prince Andrew be named in newly released Epstein files? | BUY | 0.4899998285 | $1.00 |
| 07-25 23:20 | Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? | BUY | 0.7599998024 | $2.00 |
| 07-25 15:04 | Ethereum above $3,600 on July 25? | SELL | 0.1 | $2.50 |
| 07-25 14:47 | Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on July 25? | BUY | 0.1099999521 | $2.00 |
| 07-25 14:15 | Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? | BUY | 0.0090000001 | $1.00 |
| 07-25 14:12 | Ethereum above $3,600 on July 25? | BUY | 0.03 | $3.00 |