ot1234
0xbc6976f7ac7a7cc6f816461fa4f4c1e0cfe28fca
- Realised P&L
- $-29.83
- Volume
- $1.1k
- Markets traded
- 198
- Open portfolio
- $15.70
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded198
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Yashar be in the next Israeli government? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.540 | $8.10 | −$0.45 |
| Will The Democrats be in the next Israeli government? · No | 0.410 | 0.450 | $6.75 | +$0.60 |
| Will Shas be in the next Israeli government? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.330 | $0.85 | −$0.15 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.23at 0.310Another Houthi strike on Israel by September 15?
- +$1.83at 0.690Will France recognize Palestine in 2025?
- +$1.76at 0.740Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?
- +$1.52at 0.845Will "The Smashing Machine" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 11m?
- +$1.03at 0.660Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-10 13:54 | Will Shas be in the next Israeli government? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 13:52 | Will Yashar be in the next Israeli government? | BUY | 0.57 | $8.55 |
| 10-10 13:52 | Will The Democrats be in the next Israeli government? | BUY | 0.41 | $6.15 |
| 07-29 21:01 | Will Tally Gotliv win the 2026 Likud party primary elections? | BUY | 0.9139999923 | $5.00 |
| 05-30 16:34 | Netanyahu out by June 30? | SELL | 0.961 | $1.08 |
| 03-24 14:49 | Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8799999648 | $1.00 |
| 03-24 14:48 | Netanyahu out by June 30? | BUY | 0.889999911 | $1.00 |
| 03-24 14:47 | Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399999674 | $5.00 |
| 03-24 14:46 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | BUY | 0.91 | $1.00 |
| 01-19 11:38 | Will Israel strike Gaza on January 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.9769997815 | $3.00 |
| 01-19 11:36 | Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.9379999899 | $5.00 |
| 01-19 11:35 | Will Christian Menefee win TX-18 Special Election? | BUY | 0.9 | $1.00 |
| 01-19 11:33 | US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.9199998283 | $3.00 |
| 12-20 13:14 | Will Barack Obama be named in newly released Epstein files? | BUY | 0.9 | $2.00 |
| 12-20 13:13 | Will Piers Morgan be named in newly released Epstein files? | BUY | 0.9299999814 | $2.00 |