gtyh1
0xbc49646789144e16af96f9927cd080deac27e9cf
- Realised P&L
- $-477.20
- Volume
- $10.3k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $22.67
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration89.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)57.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.761 | 0.120 | $22.67 | −$121.08 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 November 24-30? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 November 24-30? · Yes | 0.107 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.60 |
| EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.027 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.55 |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes | 0.123 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$210.85 |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes | 0.128 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.79 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$279.77at 0.440MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
- +$14.92at 0.700Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
- +$13.06at 0.809Will edgeX launch a token in 2025?
- +$5.25at 0.830EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch?
- +$-39.10at 0.169Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-27 07:16 | Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.065 | $24.44 |
| 12-25 10:54 | Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.13 | $49.53 |
| 12-25 09:53 | Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.13 | $26.00 |
| 12-25 09:53 | Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.13 | $26.00 |
| 12-25 09:51 | Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.13 | $26.00 |
| 12-25 09:34 | Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? | BUY | 0.8090695632 | $100.00 |
| 12-20 09:57 | Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.3 | $55.80 |
| 12-20 09:55 | Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.3 | $60.00 |
| 12-20 09:54 | Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.3 | $60.00 |
| 12-20 09:48 | Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.3 | $60.00 |
| 12-20 06:55 | Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.31 | $60.45 |
| 12-20 06:30 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.5187244898 | $101.67 |
| 12-18 08:01 | EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.8852631579 | $84.10 |
| 12-17 12:50 | EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.0399395349 | $8.59 |
| 12-17 11:37 | EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.02 | $3.98 |